Zogby Poll: Democrat John Kerry holds on to a tentative lead
- Originally published by Zogby International [here ]
A Report by Fritz Wenzel - Senior Political Writer
July 26, 2004 - Fifth in a series
In a two-week stretch in which there was very little going on around the world or domestically, the race for the White House has followed suit, settling down a bit, the latest edition of the Zogby Interactive poll shows. Democratic challenger John Kerry of Massachusetts retains his Electoral College lead over President Bush, but the race in many key states is too close to call as Democrats gather in Boston for their quadrennial nominating convention.
The collection of state polls, conducted July 19-23, shows Mr. Kerry leading, 275 to 220, with three of the 16 states in the collection - Florida, Missouri, and Nevada - excluded from the count.
Florida is an absolute dead heat; while Missouri and Nevada are razor-thin advantages leaning toward Mr. Kerry. All three states were won by Mr. Bush four years ago. Even without considering the votes from those states, Mr. Kerry still has enough support in the Zogby model to win the Presidency.
But it cannot be emphasized enough that the polling shows this race is too close to call right now.
In a fourth state, for instance, Mr. Kerry leads in Tennessee by less than two percent, and Mr. Bush's lead in Ohio is very tenuous. Anything could happen. A major event in the campaign could change everything, but so far, neither candidate has been able to build much momentum, which raises the stakes for this first convention as voters scour the landscape for a watershed moment.
Please note: This is a calculation of the Electoral College vote, based on polls conducted simultaneously but separately in 16 key battleground states across the nation. Each state poll carries its own margin of error, as noted in the charts below. This calculation awards the votes from some states to the candidates, although many states in the polling are within the margins of error. Three states are simply too close for their votes to be awarded - Florida, Missouri, and Nevada - so the total in this edition of the poll does not add up to the 538 votes in the Electoral College.
The only major flap in the race featured a minor spat between President Bush and the NAACP over his refusal to address the group at its annual meeting.
Democratic challenger John Kerry did speak to the group and chided Mr. Bush about declining the NAACP invitation. Predictably, the group warmly received the Massachusetts senator.
NAACP leaders complained loudly about the President's snub, while the White House said it simply does not respect those leaders and felt no obligation to grace them with Mr. Bush's presence. The criticism died down fairly quickly, and the President worked to stunt any backlash by addressing the Urban League at its annual meeting in Detroit Friday.
During that speech, which came a day after Mr. Kerry had traveled to Detroit to meet the group, Mr. Bush questioned why so many African-Americans give their political loyalty to the Democratic Party without making it compete for the honor. This may have been a predictable line of reasoning, coming from a President who won less than 10% of the African-American vote in the 2000 election. Still, there was a smattering of applause for the President when he hit that portion of his speech.
The Zogby Interactive poll runs simultaneously in 16 battleground states that are deemed important to the November election. For the purposes of counting Electoral College votes, it is assumed that, in the 34 states not included in this poll, the vote will mirror the results of the 2000 Presidential election. In those states, taking into account shifts in the Electoral College count made after the 2000 U.S. Census, Mr. Bush holds an advantage, 189 to 172.
In the 16 states included in the survey, there are 177 Electoral College votes up for grabs. The college is made up of a total of 538 votes. The winner of the Presidency must amass 270.
As a reference point, considering the shift in Electoral College votes after the Census, Mr. Bush would win an exact replay of the 2000 election by a 278 to 260 margin, slightly more than the actual count four years ago, which ended up at 271 to 266, with one abstention.
Considering the news of the past two weeks, there was still some unrest in Iraq, but much of the violence and mayhem there has receded from the front pages of America's great newspapers, a by-product of the hand over of authority over Iraq from U.S. to Iraqi leaders late last month. While there is much American work to be done there, news coverage since the hand-off may be an indication that the short-term future in Iraq may have less impact on the outcome of the November elections here than some might have thought.
The economy wandered like a bored child on summer vacation. In the battleground states, television advertising continued, as Mr. Bush slammed Mr. Kerry on the airwaves with ads that highlighted certain Kerry votes in the Senate and questioned whether his values matched those of voters in the toss-up Midwestern states in which the ads were run. A twist: the Bush campaign added radio hits on Kerry during the last two weeks in those key states.
Much of the last two weeks included the build-up to the Democratic National Convention in Boston, where Mr. Kerry will make what will easily be the most important speech of his life. Meanwhile, the release of the Sept. 11 commission investigating the terrorism attacks of 2001 dominated the news, along with reports that a key Kerry advisor on foreign policy, Sandy Berger, purloined some sensitive government documents, stuffing them into his clothing.
Mr. Berger, who has been under investigation for months, stepped down as a Kerry advisor as soon as the scandal finally made to news pages last week. Damage to the Kerry campaign is unknown, but is probably minuscule.
With that said, let's get to the state-by-state details:
MOE +/- 2.5 percentage points
It's not political paradise, but Arkansas is one place where President Bush could think it's the next best thing. It is one of those rare states that, in the current political atmosphere, almost every other person thinks he should be re-elected. Compared with the alternative, he leads.
Forty-seven percent give him a positive job approval rating, while 45% think things are going in the right direction. While men are evenly split on the question, women are decidedly negative here, as 57% think things are off track.
The president's edge comes in part because locals don't seem to like his opponent. The President wins a 52% positive overall rating, compared to 46% for his New England opponent
BACKGROUNDER: Modern-day Arkansas is a typical southern state that shows favor both for Republicans and for southern Democrats. Bill Clinton won his home state in both 1996 and 1992, and Georgia's Jimmy Carter cruised to victory here in 1976. But it turned its back on Clinton's vice president four years ago; George Bush won here by more than 5 percent over Al Gore, whose southern credentials were in question throughout the region. It wasn't the first time Arkansas gave up on a fellow southerner - at the height of troubled economic times that featured high inflation and higher interest rates, Ronald Reagan narrowly snared the state from Carter in 1980.
ARKANSAS COLLEGE VOTES: 6
MOE +/- 2.5 percentage points
President Bush has improved his overall approval rating here, bumping it up a couple of points over the past two weeks, and keeping him in the ball game in one of the more important states in the nation. Fifty-two percent here now say they approve of him overall, up just a notch from earlier polls, but solidly higher than in other states across the nation.
By contrast, just 48% here have a positive opinion of his opponent, Mr. Kerry.
Thinking of the direction in which the country is headed, 47% of respondents here think things are going fine, better than in other states, if not a stellar number standing on its own merits. Among older voters and among those making more money, Mr. Bush's ratings improve.
BACKGROUNDER: Home to the election debacle of 2000, Florida has favored Republicans when there wasn't a southern Democrat at the top of the ticket. Mr. Clinton won it in 1996, but was narrowly defeated in 1992 by the current president's father. Before that, Republicans controlled it reliably in the modern era with the exception of 1976, when Jimmy Carter from Georgia next door was on the ballot. Democrat Lyndon Johnson narrowly won the state in 1964, which amounted to one of the better showings Republican Barry Goldwater had nationwide - an election in which he won only six states, five of them in the south. It is unclear what impact the president's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will have on the election, but Jeb, now in his second term, has grown in popularity.
FLORIDA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 27
MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points
This is another example of a state badly split down the political middle, as the old favor Mr. Bush and the young favor challenger Kerry.
While a narrow majority here believe things could be headed in a better direction, those of the same faith as Mr. Kerry support Mr. Bush instead. Fifty-one percent give Mr. Kerry a positive overall opinion rating, compared to just 47% who think highly of Mr. Bush.
This state, which Democrat Al Gore won narrowly four years ago, promises to be hard-fought this fall. It is an absolute must win for Mr. Kerry, whose New England sensibilities may be a tough sell here. In his favor is the striking come-from-behind victory he posted here in the Iowa caucuses in January. There is no demographic here that puts a repeat performance out of the realm of possibility. He does need to see some improvement, however, among rural voters, where he trails Mr. Bush by almost 10%.
BACKGROUNDER: Iowa has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, having gone with the party's nominee in each of the last four presidential votes, including a surprisingly easy win for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Al Gore won the state in 2000 in what was one of the closest state races in the nation, having won by just over 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast. The state remains up for grabs, though John Kerry has a soft spot for Iowa, which gave him an important first victory in the caucuses that propelled him to a quick string of overwhelming primary victories.
IOWA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7
MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points
President Bush has lost the luster he had here just a month ago, as men have begun to turn their backs on him. Once holding a commanding lead among men, he now trails Mr. Kerry in the category by a narrow margin, 48% to 46%, still within the margin of error.
Another demographic that is extraordinarily weak for the President is among moderates, who by a 4 to 1 margin say they prefer Mr. Kerry, a dramatically higher figure than in other states. Having been competitive here just a month ago, the foundation for Mr. Bush's strength appears to have collapsed.
Another key demographic has turned toward Mr. Kerry, as a majority of Catholics here now say they back the challenger. Those in union households also, not surprisingly, say they support the challenger over the incumbent. The surprise may be that those in non-union households feel the same way.
BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won a comfortable 5-point victory in this car capital in 2000, in part because members of the United Auto Workers had Election Day off as a negotiated holiday that was spent volunteering for get-out-the-vote efforts. Bill Clinton won Michigan in both his elections, but the state was reliably Republican for several votes before that, starting with Richard Nixon in 1972 and including Favorite Son Gerald Ford's 1976 candidacy. Ronald Reagan won it in 1980 and 1984, and George H. W. Bush won in 1988.
MICHIGAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 17
MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points
Minnesotans are as sure about this race as any voters in the country, as 94% say they are unlikely to change their minds before Election Day. Both candidates have won the loyalty of their parties here, as hardly anyone on either side of the aisle says they won't support their party's standard bearer at the polls.
Not surprisingly, the percentage of Minnesotans who say they have an overall positive approval of Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry match the percentage of support each candidate receives here. Mr. Bush does well in small cities, suburban Minnesota, and in rural parts of the state, while Mr. Kerry does well in the big cities, including St. Paul and Minneapolis.
This is a tough state for Mr. Bush. Just 42% say things are going in the right direction, while 56% say things are off on the wrong track.
BACKGROUNDER: Minnesota Republicans have to go back to 1972 to find a win here, though George Bush came close four years ago. Reliably liberal, Al Gore nearly stumbled here, winning the state by less than 2.5 percent, largely on the strength of his support in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Ralph Nader also ate into his margin here, winning 5 percent of the vote.
MINNESOTA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10
MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points
John Kerry continues his hold on Missouri, but the truth is the candidates are within one percentage point here and it is way too close to call. The poll gives Mr. Kerry this state's 11 Electoral College votes, but it is clear he still has to earn them. He led by a narrow margin of three points in the last poll, showing that this state may be slipping away.
He has weakness among some traditionally strong Democratic demographics, including women, where he leads but not by much. The same is the case with those who reside in union households, where Mr. Kerry has apparently not made much of a case for their votes.
Nothing has changed here in the minds of respondents when it comes to their view of the country. About half still think things are going sour, and a similar percentage think things are going okay.
Another indication that the President has bounced back a bit from the last poll: a slightly higher percentage of Missouri respondents think he deserves re-election. The improvement is negligible, mind you, but this is an election that has every appearance of turning on the negligible. It's something to watch.
BACKGROUNDER: A modern-day bellwether, Missouri has voted with the presidential winner in every election since Dwight Eisenhower narrowly lost the state to challenger Adlai Stevenson in his 1956 re-election bid. Mr. Bush won the state by a narrow margin four years ago amid questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some St. Louis precincts that may have swung a U.S. Senate race from the hands of incumbent John Ashcroft to Democrat Jean Carnahan, the widow of Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash weeks before the election. It remains unclear how the controversial Ashcroft, now the U.S. Attorney General, will impact the presidential race here this fall.
MISSOURI ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11
MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points
Geography may have more to do with the race here than elsewhere. While Mr. Kerry generally leads by a substantial margin in large cities in other states, his margin in the one big city in Nevada - Las Vegas - is just four percentage points, making it a gamble for him to wrest this small western state from the grip of President Bush.
Meanwhile, Mr. Bush continues to show strength outside the Las Vegas area, including suburban and rural Nevada. Still, this state is too close to call, and its Electoral College votes have been put into a neutral holding pattern for the purposes of this poll this time.
Seven percent of respondent said they favor either independent Ralph Nader or are yet undecided, making them the possible kingmakers in the race here this fall.
BACKGROUNDER: Nevada tends to give Democrats small presidential victories and Republicans large ones, but the 2000 race was closer than expected, with George Bush winning it by less than 4 percent. Mr. Clinton won the state by about 3 percent in 1992, but nearly lost it four years later. He might have lost it in both elections had it not been for H. Ross Perot, who won more than 26 percent of the vote in 1992, and more than 9 percent in a lackluster 1996 repeat performance. The state, while small, is home to Las Vegas, one of the fastest growing cities in the nation.
NEVADA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5
MOE +/- 4.2 percentage points
This is a tuffy for Mr. Bush. It was the only New England state he won in the 2000 election, and now Democrats have invaded a nearby city to hold its nominating convention to unseat him, featuring a nominee who lives right here. The Boston media market has gone understandably ga-ga over the convention, and Mr. Kerry is due to receive some fawning hometown press coverage during the proceedings, all of which bleeds over heavily into the New Hampshire markets.
Mr. Kerry now leads here, in part because people seem to continue to be upset with the incumbent. Just 41% say the nation is moving in the right direction, while 43% say Mr. Bush should be re-elected. These are tough numbers.
Forty-five percent have a positive overall opinion of Mr. Bush, which beats his re-elect numbers, and 50% say it is time for someone new. What is remarkable here is that, while Mr. Bush flounders, Mr. Kerry has failed to make the sale, even in a state that is literally minutes from the front steps of his own home.
BACKGROUNDER: This was a Bush state in 2000, but just barely. In a region saturated with Democratic red on the electoral map, Bush won by just over 7,000 votes, less than 1.3 percent. This is one of those states Al Gore could cite to prove Ralph Nader cost him the White House. The ticket of Nader and Winona LaDuke won 3.9 percent of the vote, more than three times the Bush margin of victory over Mr. Gore. Bill Clinton won the state easily in 1996 and narrowly in 1992. Before that, Democrats have to go all the way to 1964 to find a presidential victory in this small but fiercely independent, right-leaning state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 4
MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points
Little has changed here in the last two weeks, as Mr. Kerry picks up a little ground and respondents still feel pessimistic about the direction of the country. Men are much less down-in-the-mouth than women, as they are evenly split about how things are going. Women, by a two-to-one margin, think things right now are sour.
Mr. Kerry holds a substantial lead here in overall opinion ratings, winning a positive rating from 52%, compared to 44% for Mr. Bush. It is no wonder this was the only Southwestern state outside of California to go for Democrat Al Gore four years ago. It may also help that the governor, Bill Richardson, is a charismatic pol who has been a vocal supporter of Mr. Kerry and was almost his running mate.
Mr. Bush has a 39% job approval rating here, and just 42% say he deserves to be re-elected.
BACKGROUNDER: New Mexico featured one of the closest races in the nation four years ago, with Al Gore winning the state by less than 400 votes -- or 0.06 percent - out of almost 600,000 cast. It was only the second time in 100 years that the state has not favored the winning candidate -- the other being 1976, when Gerald Ford narrowly edged Jimmy Carter here. As with Florida, the governor here -- Hispanic Democrat Bill Richardson -- could have an impact on the outcome.
NEW MEXICO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5
MOE +/- 2.6 percentage points
President Bush has gained a toe-hold here in the most critical state in the November election, leading Mr. Kerry by a margin so small as to be well within the margin of error of the Zogby Interactive poll. But the numbers behind to numbers show Mr. Bush has some residual strength.
He leads among those living in union households, which may be an anomoly but still spell trouble for Mr. Kerry, whose wealth and high lifestyle in the U.S. Senate may hurt him among the Midwestern rank and file who have to worry about prescription drugs and gas prices. Among men, he trails badly here, and while he leads among women, it is not enough to make up the difference.
In his favor, the percentage of people who think things are deteriorating has edged up just a bit. This state is still too close to call. A significant downside for Mr. Kerry: he trails badly among Catholics here, an important demographic, especially across the state's northern industrial tier that borders Lake Erie.
BACKGROUNDER: This was an unexpectedly close race in 2000, when George W. Bush eked out a 3.5 percent victory. Bill Clinton won it in both 1996 and 1992, but it was Republican territory in 1988, 1984, and 1980. The race was incredibly close in 1976, with Democrat Jimmy Carter winning the state's 25 electoral college votes by just over 11,000 votes -- or less than 0.3 percent -- out of 4.1 million cast. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, which is one reason the state is considered "Ground Zero" for this year's presidential race. Republicans control state government here and are well-organized, but Democrats are trying to catch up.
OHIO ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 20
MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points
If you are single, live in a union household, and make a moderate income, you are going to be the backbone of the Kerry support structure here in Oregon. If you are married and have children under the age of 18, you are more likely to support Mr. Bush.
This state, which is dominated by Portland in the north and went for Al Gore - narrowly - four years ago, appears to be reverting back to its liberal roots. That may be because it has felt the brunt of the economic recession that began four years ago, and, as always, is among the last to feel recovery. Just 40% think things are headed in the right direction. While men - typically more optimistic about the economy than females - are evenly split here, women have decided: they hate the current economic climate and the way things are going overseas.
Two out of every three females think it is time to elect a new president. Just 41% of Oregonians at large think Mr. Bush deserves a second term.
BACKGROUNDER: The 2000 presidential race in Oregon was unexpectedly close, with Democrat Al Gore winning by 3 percent. Bill Clinton easily won in 1996 and 1992, thanks in part to third-party candidate H. Ross Perot, who won nearly a quarter of the vote here in 1992. It was one of the few bright spots for Michael Dukakis in 1988, an election that reflected a significant moderate-to-liberal movement in the electorate. Before that, Republicans won Oregon in five straight elections between 1984 and 1968.
OREGON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 7
MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points
Mr. Kerry is able to leverage his support among those in union households into a solid lead here, leveling the playing field even among those living in households where there is no union member.
Among men, he has also evened the playing field, while maintaining a significant lead among women.
Mr. Gore won this state four years ago, and Mr. Kerry needs to make sure he wins it this fall if he has any hope of winning the presidency. Considering that just 43% here think things are headed in the right direction, his chances of nailing down this state appear to be good, even though President Bush has made more trips here than to almost any other state in the union.
BACKGROUNDER: This big, industrial state with two major anchor cities -- Philadelphia in the east and Pittsburgh in the west - volleys back and forth in presidential elections. Democrat Al Gore won here by just over 4 percent in 2000. Bill Clinton won it easily in both 1996 and 1992. Republicans George H. W. Bush won it in 1988, as did Ronald Reagan in both of his elections. Democrat Jimmy Carter won narrowly in 1976. Richard Nixon lost the state in 1968, but won it easily in his 1972 re-election bid. Next to Ohio, this may be the key state in the nation.
PENNSYLVANIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 21
MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points
It's hard to find a state where a majority of people think things in America are moving in the right direction, and this is no exception. A southern state with conservative leanings, still just 46% think things are on the right track. Mr. Bush, who won this state four years ago, trails slightly here. The margin is less than two full percentage points, but enough for us to give its 11 Electoral College votes to challenger Kerry.
Mr. Bush leads, however, in the race for approval here. One in two say they have a favorable overall opinion of him, while slightly fewer - 46% - have the same opinion of the challenger.
Mr. Bush leads among men, 53% to 41%, while Mr. Kerry holds a similar lead among women. While Mr. Kerry leads among those living in this state's bigger cities, Mr. Bush leads everywhere else.
BACKGROUNDER: This is home to disappointment for Democrat Al Gore, who lost his home state and the presidency here in 2000. But that outcome continued this state's habit of voting for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1960. Then, Richard Nixon won the state but lost to John Kennedy, who, like this year's Democratic nominee-in-waiting, was a senator from Massachusetts. The closest modern election here came not four years ago, but in 1980, when Republican Ronald Reagan defeated southerner Jimmy Carter by less than 5,000 votes -- less than 0.3 percent -- out of more than 1.6 million cast.
TENNESSEE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11
MOE +/- 2.9 percentage points
Mr. Kerry continues to show strength here, hanging on to about the same percent of support he had during the last poll earlier this month, partly on the support his wins among men. It is somewhat unusual for Mr. Kerry to lead among men, but he does so here, if just by the narrowest of margins. He also maintains a solid lead among women, and so leads overall.
Numbers for Mr. Bush are getting progressively worse here, in a state that went for Democrat Al Gore four years ago. Just 41% said they think things are going in the right direction, while 56% think things are off track.
Fifty-five percent said they think it is time for someone new at the White House. John Kerry has a generally positive approval rating from 52% here, while just 44% feel good about the overall leadership of President Bush.
BACKGROUNDER: Al Gore won Washington comfortably four years ago, with a 5.5 percent margin, especially considering that third-party liberal Ralph Nader won another 4 percent. Mr. Gore's strength is in the population centers west of the Cascade Mountains, including Seattle. The rest of the state was Bush territory. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, with Michael Dukakis eking out a narrow win over the current president's father in 1988.
WASHINGTON ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 11
MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points
This crucial toss-up state continues to lean toward Mr. Bush and against Mr. Kerry, and environmental issues may make the difference in this coal-dependent state. Mr. Kerry has been hammered here on questions about how his restrictive air-quality policies might affect the local economy.
With 8% either undecided or favoring neither major party candidate, there is some flux in the race here. Mr. Bush has lost some ground, but Mr. Kerry appears unable to capitalize so far.
The President's lead is not pinned to an overwhelming feeling of optimism. Slightly more respondents here think things are going sour than are going well. Mr. Bush leads among men, but his deficit among women - a national trend - is smaller here than elsewhere.
BACKGROUNDER: A small state surprise in 2000, West Virginia went for Republican George Bush by a comfortable margin of more than 6 percent. Before that, it had been in Democratic hands since 1988, when northerner Michael Dukakis defeated the president's father here. Reliably Democrat, it was one of only six states that went for Jimmy Carter in 1980.
WEST VIRGINIA ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 5
MOE +/- 4.0 percentage points
Matching the no-nonsense approach Wisconsin residents bring to politics, the percentage of respondents who have favorable perceptions about the candidates mirrors the support they each receive in a head-to-head match. One in every two say they have a positive perception of Mr. Kerry, and 46% say they feel the same way about Mr. Bush. Mr. Kerry leads in Wisconsin, 50% to 46%.
Not a lot has changed here. Their view of the direction of the country has deteriorated a bit from last month, as just 44% think things are heading in the right direction. And 45% think Mr. Bush should be re-elected.
The gender gap remains in play here, as Mr. Bush leads narrowly among men, and Mr. Kerry leads by a comfortable margin among women.
The respondents here have a more positive overall opinion of the President than anywhere else, as 58% give him a positive rating, much better than his opponent.
BACKGROUNDER: Wisconsin was another one of those razor-thin victories for Democrat Al Gore four years ago in an election defined by them. He won the state by less than 6,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast. With an independent streak, more than 20 percent of voters opted for H. Ross Perot in 1992, perhaps handing the state to Democrat Bill Clinton, who won it by less than 5 percent over President George H. W. Bush. If the presidential challenger is serious, as in 1980 and 1992, this state seems to give them a good look. If not, regardless of party, Wisconsin tends to stick with what they know, as in 1972, 1984, and 1996.
WISCONSIN ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 10
Pollster John Zogby: "Another testament to why these are called ?battleground states'. There are so few undecided voters and in later rounds of polling we will try to get a close look as to who these thousands among millions really are.
"For now, there continues to be movement -- showing that the race moves one way or another based on events, even little things.
"Kerry still holds leads in most of these states and has now performed well again in Tennessee -- a state I was actually considering dropping before our last round. Florida and Ohio remain perhaps the most critical and the closest big states.
"But these are still all in play."