Copyright 2004 Sarasota Herald-Tribune Co.  

By: LLOYD DUNKELBERGER CAPITAL BUREAU

A ballot measure to raise the minimum wage in Florida by $1 an hour could play a role in attracting more Democratic voters to the polls in the Nov. 2 general election.

Amendment 5, which has the backing of Democratic groups, including the AFL- CIO, would raise the minimum wage in Florida from $5.15 an hour to $6.15. It would also adjust the wage annually, based on an inflation index.

The constitutional amendment presents a clear contrast for voters between the two political parties.

President George W. Bush and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mel Martinez oppose mandating a raise in the minimum wage, which hasn't changed since 1997. Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and Senate candidate Betty Castor support increasing the minimum wage.

Political analysts say the ballot measure, which already appears to have solid support among state voters, could help the Democrats bring more voters to the polls.

The reason is lower-income voters are more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate than a Republican.

For instance, in the 1996 presidential election, Florida voters who earned less than $30,000 a year favored Bill Clinton over Bob Dole by a 52 percent to 38 percent margin in the election. They accounted for 23 percent of the electorate, according to exit polls.

Voters who earned more than $75,000 year supported Dole over Clinton by at least a 54 percent to 35 percent margin. They accounted for 15 percent of the electorate.

Republican strategists say while the minimum wage proposal may draw more Democratic-leaning voters to the polls, the impact could be minimized by other ballot measures attractive to Republican voters.

Amendment 1, which would require parental notification when a minor is seeking an abortion, has the strong support of religious conservatives, who are solid GOP voters.

In the 1996 presidential race, religious conservatives supported Dole over Clinton by an overwhelming 70 percent to 20 percent margin. They accounted for 19 percent of the electorate in Florida.

Democrats, though, see the minimum wage issue as an important factor in the election.

Kerry hasn't specifically endorsed the Florida ballot measure, but has supported efforts to raise the federal minimum wage, his campaign said.

"One of the things we have talked about in this campaign is the need for a higher minimum wage and to stop the squeeze that many families have felt in terms of declining wages, higher costs of health care and the higher costs of tuition," said Matt Miller, a spokesman for Kerry's campaign in Florida.

Meanwhile, Republicans have sided with business groups that argue marketplace forces, rather than government should set the wages. They point out that only 3 percent of the national work force is paid the minimum wage, which they contend is often a "training wage" for younger workers who quickly move up the pay scale.

Martinez, the former HUD secretary who is running for the Senate, is opposed "in principle to having artificially controlled wages," said Jennifer Coxe, a spokesperson for his campaign.

Martinez believes a mandatory increase in the minimum wage could end up hurting lower-income Floridians by eliminating more jobs, she said.

His arguments echo those advanced by business groups, ranging from the Florida Chamber of Commerce to the Florida Restaurant Association, that contend higher wages will lead to fewer jobs, higher prices and fewer benefits for workers.

"Amendment 5 will cost tens of thousands of Floridians their jobs and benefits," said Rick McAllister, president of the Florida Retail Federation.

On the other hand, Castor, the Democratic Senate candidate, has highlighted Martinez's opposition to the minimum wage in her television advertising.

"Shouldn't your senator focus on what matters to you?" her ad asks. "Mel Martinez has made his priorities clear. (He) opposes a higher minimum wage." Her message is aimed not only at Democrat-leaning voters but also at key voting blocs that could decide the Senate race, Hispanic and women voters.

Some 850,000 Florida workers will benefit from the minimum-wage increase, Amendment 5 supporters say.

That includes the 300,000 workers who earn less than the proposed $6.15 minimum wage and another 550,000 workers who would see a pay increase because of a "ripple effect," according to the analysis.

Of the 850,000 workers that could benefit from the measure, 29 percent are Hispanic and 61 percent are women. Overall, minorities, including Hispanics, would account for 52 percent of the workers who could benefit from the pay increase.

Business groups say those low-wage workers would be hurt by the mandatory pay increase because it represents $500 million in added annual costs to their employers.

Those costs will have to be met by hiring fewer workers, raising prices and cutting benefits, such as health insurance or retirement programs.

Additionally, the business groups say some workers may realize a pay increase but that will be offset by the fact that they would lose their eligibility for government programs such as Medicaid or Kidcare, which provides health care coverage for their families.

The business coalition estimates that more than 13,000 children will lose their health care benefits because of the measure.

"These are the families who are supposed to benefit under this proposal, but Amendment 5 will only make their problems worse," said Carol Dover, president of the Florida Restaurant Association.

Supporters of Amendment 5 concede the measure will increase costs for Florida businesses and government, which they estimate at $443 million a year.

But they say that cost will be made up by modest price increases.

For instance, a $20 restaurant bill would increase to $20.14 if the minimum wage is raised.

"Is that going to stop people from going to restaurants?" asked Robert Pollin, a University of Massachusetts economist who analyzed the measure for amendment supporters. "That seems to me is the key question."