From the The New York Times Company on April 3, 2006 Monday
By SAM ROBERTS

An accelerating exodus of American-born blacks, coupled with slight declines in birthrates and a slowing influx of Caribbean and African immigrants, have produced a decline in New York City's black population for the first time since the draft riots during the Civil War, according to preliminary census estimates.

While white New Yorkers are still more likely than blacks to leave the city, they are also more likely to relocate to the nearby suburbs (which is where half the whites move) or elsewhere in the Northeast, or to scatter to other cities and retirement communities across the country. Moreover, New York remains a magnet for whites from most other states.

Also, New York has a net loss of blacks to all but five states, and those net gains are minuscule.

The implications for a city of 8.2 million people could be profound. If the trend continues, not only will the black share of New York's population, which dipped below 25 percent in 2000, continue to decline, particularly if the overall population grows, but a higher proportion of black New Yorkers will be foreign-born or the children of immigrants.

''It was a difficult decision, but it was a financial decision,'' said Ms. Dowdell, 39, adding that the move also gave her time to research her family's roots in Virginia.

The analysis of migration from 1995 to 2000 also suggests that many blacks, already struggling with high housing costs in New York City, are being priced out of nearby suburbs, too.

Over all, more black residents who left New York City moved to Florida than to New Jersey.

''All this suggests that New York City out-migration of blacks is unique in its scope -- net losses to most states -- and pattern -- especially destined to the South,'' Dr. Frey said.

''You have older people who leave the North just to go back to a place that is kind of slower, or where they grew up or went on vacation when they were younger -- and when you retire, your money doesn't go very far in New York,'' said Sylviane A. Diouf, a historian and researcher at the Schomburg Center and co-author of a study of black migration. ''You also have young college-educated people who find that the South has lots of economic potential and a lower cost of living.''

''I lived in New York for almost 50 years and loved what it offered in schools, entertainment and convenience, but I lost my job and finding one at my age would pay half of what I was making,'' she said. ''I was divorced and moved here with my 11-year-old -- I was afraid of the crime, and black boys don't fare too well in New York.''

''I'm 60 now,'' she said. ''I think I was ready for the quietness.''

''Some foreign-born blacks are moving out, too -- to the suburbs as well as to other parts of the country, particularly South Florida,'' said Nancy Foner, a distinguished professor of sociology at Hunter College.

In 1997, Christine Wiggins retired as an assistant bank manager after 25 years. She left Queens Village and followed her brother, who worked for New York City Transit, to the Poconos.

The East Stroudsburg, Pa., area, where radio advertisements lured first-time homebuyers, was among the 15 top destinations for black residents leaving New York City. More black New Yorkers moved to Monroe County in the Poconos than to either the Rockland or Orange County suburbs of New York.

Those early estimates of the 30,000 drop in black population since 2000, a 1.5 percent decline, suggest that among blacks, the arrival of newcomers from abroad and higher birthrates among immigrants were not keeping pace with the outflow.

A net loss of black residents, even between censuses, would apparently be the first since the Civil War. In 1863, after mobs attacked blacks during the draft riots, many fled New York City. ''By 1865,'' Leslie M. Harris wrote in ''In the Shadow of Slavery,'' the city's ''black population had plummeted to just under 10,000, its lowest since 1820.''