From The Hotline August 24, 2012 National Journal's Brownstein writes: "For all of the numbers swirling around the presidential campaign as the nominating conventions approach, each side's equation for success can be succinctly expressed." For Obama "the winning formula can be reduced to 80/40. In 2008, Obama won" a combined 80% "of the votes of all minority voters, including not only African-Americans but also Hispanics, Asians, and others. If Obama matches that performance this year, he can squeak out a national majority with support from" about 40% of whites"so long as minorities at least match" the 26% "of the vote they cast last time. Obama's strategic equation defines" Romney's formula: 61/74. "Romney's camp is focused intently on capturing" at least 61% of white voters. 

"That would provide him a slim national majority so long as whites constitute" at least 74% of the vote, "as they did last time, and Obama doesn't improve" on his 80% showing with minorities. "These calculations underscore the depth of racial polarization shadowing this election and the achingly slim margin of error facing each candidate" (8/25).  

"To understand the boundaries and dynamics of this struggle, National Journal has updated a project we conducted in 2008 that examined, in unprecedented depth, the fault lines and cross pressures among American voters... It also shows how shifts in the electorate's composition have altered the political balance at least as much as have changes in voters' attitudes. Because of the steady growth of the minority population and Romney's failure so far to crack those voters, Obama could prevail in November with an 80/40 solution:" winning about 80% of the vote among minorities and about 40% among whites. "Yet, hard times could put even that modest showing with whites beyond Obama's reach. Heading into its final months, the 2012 campaign still looks like a titanic collision between the economy and demography."

"If Obama survives, the shifting composition of the electorate will also be aand perhaps thecritical factor" (National Journal, 8/23).