Polls show Mittens' Chances Dimming - Obama Reaches Re-election Target among White Voters, 42%
From [HERE] Money talks, and right now Republican money clearly indicates that Michigan and Pennsylvania are off the table. They've redeployed resources to Wisconsin, where Democrats are playing their own defense. But as Mitt Romney goes looking for new paths to 270 electoral votes, his campaign ever so slowly gives credence to the growing feeling that his chances are dimming.
-- And this was the week the polling dam finally broke -- both on the national and state levels. The overall preponderance of polls showed President Obama with a discernible lead over Romney nationwide and in states like Florida, Ohio and Virginia that are likely to determine the winner of an Electoral College majority.
Most notably, the national polls all showed the president at his target for reelection among white voters; Obama won 43 percent of whites in 2008 but is favored for reelection this year if he can clear roughly 39 percent. CNN/ORC showed Obama at 42 percent among whites, Fox News at 40 and ABC News/Washington Post at 41 percent. And a new poll from the Democratic outfit Democracy Corps showed Obama at 40 percent among whites without college degrees, the voters most resistant to the president in this campaign.
At these levels of support among whites, Obama is the favorite for reelection. For Romney to get back into this race, he needs to hold Obama under 37 percent or 38 percent among white voters.
-- Romney offered an awkwardly-timed criticism of the Obama administration's foreign policy in the wake of the murder of the Libyan ambassador, which earned him scorn from pundits and even longtime Republican foreign policy hands. But with brush fires erupting across the Middle East, foreign policy could play a surprisingly important role in this presidential election, and Obama could also take a hit from the volatility. He's earned solid marks on his foreign policy and handling of terrorism, largely because he made the call to kill bin Laden. But that support could soften if a tide of anti-American protests erupts throughout the Middle East, and his commitment to Israel's security sounds less than steadfast.
Romney, meanwhile, needs to sound credible on foreign policy, something he hasn't yet shown to date. But if the situation worsens abroad and Romney offers a tough indictment of Obama's approach to the Middle East in a foreign policy address and/or at the debates, he could raise enough doubts about presidential leadership to move voters his way.
-- Romney has seven weeks left to return this election to a referendum on Obama's economic record instead of a choice between two leadership styles. If he fails to do that, the president will almost certainly win a second term.
-- Democrats are still publicly optimistic about retaking the House majority, but the breakdown of congressional districts Republican groups have targeted with TV ads over the last month tells a different story. Led by the National Republican Congressional Committee, GOP outside groups have targeted 26 districts with independent expenditure TV ads in the last month, and they've split perfectly evenly: 12 districts are held by Democrats, 12 districts are held by Republicans, and two are districts where Democratic and Republican incumbents are running against each other. This may change over the next seven weeks, but a map where Republican groups are playing equal parts offense and defense simply doesn't look like one where Democrats are poised to make major gains.
-- Conventional wisdom has long held that there will be far more Tim Kaine/Romney voters in Virginia thanGeorge Allen/Obama voters come November 6. And yet polling consistently shows George Allen outperforming Romney in head-to-head match-ups against their opponents. Indeed, one can imagine a situation in late October, if Obama is seen as a sure bet to win re-election, in which Democratic Senate prospects become a bit more dicey. It's certainly plausible that undecided voters in red and purple states may vote for Republican Senate candidates in the hopes of providing a check on the re-elected Obama, in states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, or Missouri... even Linda McMahon orScott Brown might benefit as well. After all, the GOP seats netted two Senate seats in 1996, even as Bill Clinton was winning re-election by a healthy margin.
-- But for now, the GOP's path back to the majority in the Senate continues to constrict. In the last few weeks, Rep. Todd Akin's implosion in Missouri and former Rep. Heather Wilson's disappointing poll numbers in New Mexico have removed those states from the equation. You can now probably add Florida, where Sen. Bill Nelson appears to have pulled away from Rep. Connie Mack, to that list. Meanwhile, GOP nominee Josh Mandel has his work cut out for him in Ohio, where Obama continues to post strong numbers. As more and more races fall off the map, it's becoming increasingly clear that Republicans need Scott Brown to defy the odds and deliver a victory in deep-blue Massachusetts. With Maine already likely gone for the Republicans, the GOP can't afford to lose another one of its seats.
-- And Brown continues to makes the right moves, though the week saw a shift in the Massachusetts campaign. After Democratic hang-wringing over what many see as Elizabeth Warren's ineffective ads, her campaign released two different kinds of spots over the past few days. One deviated from the formula most of her ads have followed: rather than her talking to the camera (in a style some have called "preachy"), it featured people talking about her. And the other was the campaign's first attack ad, hitting Brown directly. We'll see if the new tactics can move the numbers -- and whether Brown responds with his own attack ads.
-- With less than two months to go before Election Day, Democratic candidates in some tight races are hammering away at what they consider either shady business dealings or personal finance issues with their GOP opponents. Such topics became hot this week in North Dakota's Senate race, North Carolina'sgubernatorial contest, and New York's 11th District race.
Those follow previously launched attacks over the GOP candidate's business dealings in the Wisconsin andConnecticut Senate races (though Murphy is dealing with his own financial problems now too). Expect the intensity of personal attacks to become even more dramatic down the October stretch.
-- The push for Hispanic voters is heating up in Nevada. Sen. Dean Heller's campaign released an ad Sept. 14 featuring his wife Lynne vouching in Spanish for his character and values. The spot is the third Spanish-language commercial to hit the air in the past week in the Nevada Senate contest -- two by Heller and one by Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley. Berkley also aired a Spanish ad in early August.
-- With a barrage of attack ads against him, Murphy's campaign was provoking scorn and concern from Connecticut Democrats and New London Day at the beginning of this week for not fighting back and for taking his time responding to revelations that he missed mortgage and rent payments. Finally, the DSCC stepped in on Wednesday, launching a $320,000 ad buy on the same day Murphy released an ad of his own. But the same day, McMahon lost no time launching another ad of her own, and just two days later released one more - a potent reminder of McMahon's money advantage and the fact that a $320,000 buy can't compete with the Republican's self-financed campaign. That McMahon is dominating the airwaves so aggressively spells trouble for the less well-known Democrat, who's still stuck exactly where McMahon wants him: on the defensive.