From [NY Times] A decade ago, New Mexico ushered in a demographic trend that is likely to shape American politics for decades to come.

In 2006, it became the first state in the nation whose voting-eligible population switched from being majority white to “majority minority.” That is, majority non-white. 

California has since joined that group, according to estimates, and so, too, will Texas by 2019, according to three demographic experts. Nine more states are expected to reach the tipping point before 2052, when, those experts say, the national electorate will become majority minority, too.

“The map is going to continue to change,” said Ruy Teixeira, a co-director of the States of Change project, a collaboration among the liberal Center for American Progress, the Brookings Institution and the conservative American Enterprise Institute, which published the predictions in a pair of reports this year and last year. The projections are based on migration, fertility and mortality trends and could be affected by changes to policy.

Here’s a look at some of the findings in the reports, authored by Mr. Teixeira, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, his center colleague Robert Griffin and William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution.

Minority becomes majority in US [did you know that over 90% of the world is non-white? [MORE]

Today, non-whites make up about 38 percent of the general population, a share that is expected to surpass 50 percent in 2044, according to projections. The voting-eligible population is predicted to follow closely behind.

The minority share of the electorate — those capable of voting — is predicted to rise to 50 percent in 2052 from 31 percent today. But the change will be uneven, according to the analysis.

By 2060, minorities are projected to make up about 75 percent or more of the electorate in three states: California, New Mexico and Hawaii, which has never had a white majority. In Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, on the other hand, minorities will still not have broached 15 percent of the electorate, according to the projections.

Over that time, the electorate will change drastically. In five states, the minority share of the voting-eligible population will grow by 25 percentage points or more. They are Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Nevada and New Jersey.

Nationally, the white share of the electorate is predicted to fall to 46 percent in 2060 from 69 percent this year.

The Hispanic share is predicted to rise to 27 percent from 13 percent; the black share is expected to rise one point to 13 percent from 12 percent; and the share that is Asian or “other” is expected to double to 14 percent from 7 percent.

The next generation

The electorate will also grow older as old generations fall off and new ones emerge.

In 1982, baby boomers accounted for nearly half of the electorate. Today, like millennials, they make up just under one-third. By 2060, they will have all but disappeared.

That year, about a tenth of the electorate will belong to Generation X, while the remainder will be roughly evenly split among millennials and the two generations that follow them, according to the projections. From now until 2060, millennials will maintain a hold, give or take a few percentage points, over a third of the electorate.

The voting-eligible population will grow older over that time, too, with Americans aged 65 years or older accounting for an ever-larger share of the electorate.

That group is projected to see its share of the electorate rise to 29 percent in 2060 from 21 percent today, with minorities accounting for much of the growth. The next-oldest group, those aged 50 to 64, will remain relatively steady — after a brief dip — with 23 percent of the electorate.

The share of the voting-eligible population in the three youngest age groups will shrink, dropping to 17 percent from 21 percent for those aged 18 to 29; and to 15 percent from 17 percent both for those aged 30 to 39 and those aged 40 to 49.

A more representative nation

Since the mid-1970s, the voting-eligible population has become less diverse than the voting-age population, a group that includes noncitizens. But the trend is reversing.

After decades of growth and stabilization, the electorate today is several percentage points whiter than the broader population of American adults. But, in the years to come, that gap is projected to narrow: By 2060, the electorate is projected to be 46 percent white, just one percentage point higher than the white share of the voting-age population.

The opposite is true for Hispanics, a population that today makes up 13 percent of the electorate, but 16 percent of the voting-age population. By 2060, those shares will equalize at 27 percent.