BET/CBS News Poll of African Americans
/Source: BET (Black Entertainment Television); CBS News
BET/CBS News Poll of African Americans Finds Mistrust, Disenfranchisement Heading Into Elections
As Democratic and Republican Conventions Approach, African-American Voters Not Enthusiastic About Either Bush or Kerry
Disdain for Bush is Overwhelming, But Enthusiasm for Kerry is Still Muted
WASHINGTON, July 21 -- In the most comprehensive election-
year study of registered African-American voters ever by a news
organization, a BET/CBS News poll shows support is still muted for
presumed Democratic Presidential nominee Senator John Kerry
(D-Massachusetts), while disdain for the policies of President George
W. Bush and his administration is overwhelming. The poll was
conducted by the CBS News Election and Survey Unit using a series of
questions developed by BET NIGHTLY NEWS and BET.com, the country's
leading Internet platform for African Americans and a subsidiary of
BET. The findings were jointly released today by both
organizations.
While the trending of some sentiment among the nearly 1,000 African
Americans surveyed was not surprising, other results point to mistrust
of the overall voting process that stems from the controversial ending
to the 2000 Presidential Election. Further revelations identify
jobs and the economy as the most important issues to get African
Americans to the polls in November; while a whopping nine in ten
persons surveyed feel that the war in Iraq has not been worth the
financial and human sacrifice. There is also strong opinion that
the United States is headed in the wrong policy direction under Bush's
leadership.
"These data points are of historic significance not only for the
comprehensive nature of the survey, but also for the issues clearly
identified for both Democrats and Republicans to note as the elections
draw closer," said Pamela Gentry, BET NIGHTLY NEWS Washington Bureau
Chief and Senior Producer. "There are some clear warning signs that the
Democrats should heed, and not assume rampant support from African
Americans in November based simply on traditional voting
patterns. While we found a nearly 8-to-1 margin in favor of
Senator Kerry over President Bush, the respondents have not found the
Kerry platform overly impressive."
"Republicans should also pay attention to the fact that in spite of
their outreach efforts, there's still a feeling among African Americans
that they're being largely ignored by the GOP," Gentry added.
"It is rare in an election year that we have the opportunity to focus
on this important group of voters, and this collaboration with BET
helps us understand the intensity and complexity of feelings that
explain the more unusual poll findings about African Americans," said
Kathleen Frankovic, Director of Surveys and Producer for CBS News.
The survey, conducted by the CBS News Election and Survey Unit,
comprised telephone calls with 986 African Americans. Executives
with BET.com sought to be diverse in the questioning as well as
comprehensive in the approach.
"African Americans as a whole will not shy away from sharing opinions
when approached in the right manner," said Ed Wiley III, Managing
Editor for BET.com. "It was important not only to gauge the
direction that these registered voters were leaning in their thoughts
about the November election, but also to probe a range of issues
relevant to African-American community overall. That's why the
survey data includes opinions on such topics as affirmative action,
youth crime, gay marriage, education and the crisis on the continent of
Africa."
BET NIGHTLY NEWS and BET.com will use the findings and analysis from
the poll as the basis for their coverage of the Democratic National
Convention in Boston beginning Monday, July 26. Each night
throughout the convention, BET NIGHTLY NEWS will share with viewers not
only the major convention news of the day, but also offer an inside
look at the speakers, delegates and political process as the DNC
formally nominates Senator Kerry and running mate Senator John Edwards
(D-North Carolina) as its ticket for the November general
election. BET News anchor Jacque Reid will pilot each night's
coverage, backed by a host of reporters, analysts, opinion leaders and
celebrity guests. BET will shift its election focus to New York
starting August 30 for gavel-to- gavel coverage of the Republican
National Convention. BET NIGHTLY NEWS televises Monday through
Friday at 11 p.m. ET/PT. Heather Vincent is the Executive
Producer.
CBS News conducted telephone interviews on behalf of BET with 986
African- American adults between July 6-15, 2004, of which 868 were
registered to vote. The sample of respondents came from households
where an African-American adult had previously been interviewed for CBS
News polls. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus
three percentage points for results based on the entire sample.
Additional methodological information can be found with the complete
poll results at http://www.cbsnews.com and http://www.bet.com .
Complete results of the BET/CBS News Poll are below.
ABOUT BET.COM
BET Interactive's signature offering BET.com is the country's leading
on- line media platform for African Americans. Averaging over 5.7
million visitors per month, BET.com has received numerous accolades for
its content and community applications including awards from the
National Association of Black Journalists, Scripps-Howard Media,
Interactive Design magazine and Black Enterprise. BET Interactive
is a division of Viacom (NYSE: VIA; VIA.B) and a subsidiary BET,
the nation's leading television network providing quality
entertainment, music, news and public affairs programming for the
African- American audience. The BET Network reaches more than 78
million households according to Nielsen Media Research, and can be seen
in the United States, Canada and the Caribbean.
ABOUT CBS NEWS
The CBS News Division operates a worldwide news organization serving
the CBS Television and Radio Networks with regularly scheduled news and
public affairs broadcasts -- including, among others, the CBS EVENING
NEWS WITH DAN RATHER, THE EARLY SHOW, 60 MINUTES, 60 MINUTES II, 48
HOURS, FACE THE NATION and SUNDAY MORNING -- and special reports on
breaking news. The division maintains 18 news bureaus and offices
in the United States and abroad in addition to its world headquarters
in New York.
Visit Us @ http://www.BET.com 2004 BET/CBS News Poll - Executive Summary
Here are some highlights from the 2004 BET/CBS News Poll of African American voters:
While many observers talk of political polarization in the U.S. this
election year, the African American community is unified on key
measures: nine in ten think the country is headed in the wrong
direction, and nine in ten think the war in Iraq was not worth the
costs.
Senator John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by a wide margin of 8
to 1 among African American voters. But these voters have yet to
feel a great deal of enthusiasm about their candidate this year; most
are just "satisfied" having Kerry atop the ticket.
African American voters express widespread negative views of President
Bush. But this is not much different from black voters' views of
George H.W. Bush or Ronald Reagan when they were president.
The number one policy issue -- by a wide margin -- that could mobilize
African American voters this year is the economy and jobs. Job
insecurity is no doubt part of the problem; compared to voters overall,
more black voters are concerned about losing a job. And these voters
think the way to provide more jobs for African Americans is through
government training and employment programs.
Strong resentment remains over the 2000 election -- but it is fueling
motivation to get back to the polls in 2004, and right the wrongs that
African-Americans believe took place. Most are more motivated to get to
the polls this year because of Florida 2000. More than 4 in 5 believe
Bush did not legitimately win the election, and two thirds think there
are deliberate attempts made to prevent black voters' votes from being
counted.
African Americans generally feel the Democratic Party reaches out to
them, though about one-third believe the party takes black voters for
granted. However, the majority of African American voters say they are
ignored entirely by the GOP.
African Americans are somewhat more conservative on the issue of same
sex marriage than the nation's voters as a whole. Most believe there
should be no legal recognition -- neither marriage nor civil unions --
for same sex couples.
Few African Americans see school vouchers as the primary way to improve
education opportunities; most would prefer to see more money spent on
public schools, or new districts drawn.
African Americans believe that better preparation at the elementary
school level -- and not more spaces set aside in the admissions process
-- would do the most to ensure that more African Americans go to
college.
African Americans overwhelmingly back more community programs -- and
not harsher jail terms -- as the best way to address the problem of
youth crime.
AFRICAN AMERICANS AND THE 2004 VOTE
July 6 - 15, 2004
This BET/CBS News Poll confirms that African American voters are
continuing in their traditional Democratic voting patterns: by a wide 8
to 1 margin, Senator John Kerry leads President George W. Bush among
black voters. But African American voters are not yet enthusiastic
about the Democratic candidate, nor do they think he is as yet talking
about the issues that matter to them -- but most like and trust him.
African Americans' strong dislike of incumbent President George W. Bush
is one important factor in their vote choice. But so is the
memory of the disputed Florida 2000 election and that controversy is
also a cause of deep suspicion. Most African American voters say
President Bush did not win the 2000 election legitimately, and for
some, the events of 2000 have given them additional motivation to turn
out this year. At the same time many black voters worry that
there will be deliberate efforts to discount their votes this November.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 2004 ELECTION
Not surprisingly, Democrat John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by
a margin of about 8 to 1 among African American voters in a heads-up
matchup. African Americans have historically supported Democratic
candidates by large margins; in 2000, 90% of black voters cast their
ballot for Al Gore, and 9% voted for George W. Bush. Fewer than
one in ten don't yet know who they will support. Voters as a whole give
the ticket of Kerry and Senator John Edwards a five-point edge over the
Bush-Cheney ticket in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll of
July 11-15.
KERRY VS. BUSH: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered voters)
African Americans All voters*
John
Kerry
79%
49%
George
Bush
10
44
*Comparison is to Kerry/Edwards ticket vs. Bush/Cheney ticket
Unlike voters as a whole, black voters are nearly united in their
support for Kerry. There are only minor differences among various
age, education, and income levels, by gender, or by region of the
country.
Three quarters of black voters identify themselves as Democrats.
A few say they are Republicans, and 21% are Independents. Voters
nationally are more closely divided between Democrats and Republicans.
38% say they are Democrats today, 31% Republicans, and 31% Independent
in the latest CBS News/New York Times Poll. Black voters who are
Independents are firmly in Kerry's camp; 59% support Kerry, and 18%
support Bush (Independents are a swing group among all voters).
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE 2004 VOTE
African American voters say they are more engaged in this election than
they were at this time in 2000. 37% report they are paying a lot
of attention to the campaign, and another 40% are paying some
attention. At this point in the 2000 campaign, just 16% of
African American voters were paying a lot of attention.
ATTENTION TO CAMPAIGN
(Registered voters)
Now 7/2000
A
lot
37% 16%
Some
40 47
Not
much
19 27
Not at
all
5 9
In addition, more voters are likely now than in 2000 to say they will
definitely vote in November. 83% of African American voters say
they will definitely vote; in 2000, 71% said the same. What
potential voters say they will do in July may not reflect what actually
happens in November.
The events of 2000 are clearly a motivating factor. The final
2000 results are still being questioned by almost all African American
voters: 85% say that George W. Bush did not legitimately win the
Presidency in 2000. This belief is far more widespread than among
whites: asked in March of this year, 32% of whites say that Bush did
not win legitimately.
DID BUSH LEGITIMATELY WIN IN 2000?
(Registered voters)
African Americans Whites
(Now)
(3/2004)
Yes
11%
63%
No
85
32
Half of black voters say they are more likely to turn out this year
because of the controversial events in Florida in 2000. Many black
voters claimed they were denied the vote in Florida then; but now,
hardly any black voters say that would dissuade them from voting in
2004.
HAVE THE EVENTS OF FLORIDA 2000 MADE YOU ... ?
More likely to vote in
2004
51%
Less likely to vote in
2004
3
Make no difference in '04
voting 45
Yet while they may be eager to get back to the polls in 2004, some
black voters are suspicious about what may happen there. Less than half
- 41% - have a lot of confidence that their votes will be counted
properly in November. 39% have some confidence, while 17% have little
confidence.
HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT YOUR VOTE WILL BE COUNTED IN 2004?
(Registered voters)
A
lot
41%
Some
39
Not much/none 17
The mistrust that lingers coincides with a widespread belief that
people do make deliberate attempts to either thwart African American
attempts to vote, or to miscount the ballots once cast. Fully
two-thirds of African Americans believe such malicious attempts are
made against African Americans.
ARE THERE DELIBERATE ATTEMPTS TO DISRUPT AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTING?
(Registered voters)
Yes 68%
No 27
In addition, four in ten black voters feel that they are less likely
than white voters to have their votes correctly tabulated, nearly as
many as think their votes are as likely to be correctly counted.
COMPARED TO WHITES, BLACKS IN 2004 WILL BE ...
(Registered voters)
Less likely to
have votes
counted 41%
Just as likely
to have votes counted 47
VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES
Despite their overwhelming support for him, African American voters
don't yet feel much excitement about John Kerry. Although
27% say they are "enthusiastic" about Kerry's candidacy, more than
twice as many, 58%, say they are merely "satisfied."
FEEL ABOUT KERRY'S CANDIDACY:
(Registered voters)
Enthusiastic
27%
Satisfied
58
Dissatisfied
10
Angry
1
While they might not be energized by him, these voters do have positive
views of the Democratic candidate. Majorities think Kerry has the
same priorities for the country as they do, is likely to tell them the
truth, and is highly intelligent.
VIEWS OF JOHN KERRY
(Registered voters)
Yes No
Shares your
priorities
64% 19
Likely to tell
you the truth
63% 21
JOHN KERRY IS ...
(Registered voters)
Highly
intelligent
56%
Of average intelligence 37
There is some optimism about a Kerry Administration's impact on the
lives of African Americans, though just as many are likely to expect
not much to change if he is elected. Just under half think
opportunities for blacks will improve if Kerry is elected
president. About as many think there won't be any
difference. Hardly any, however, think things will get worse.
IF KERRY IS ELECTED, OPPORTUNITIES FOR BLACKS WILL:
(Registered voters)
Get better 47%
Stay the same 45
Get
worse
3
Blacks also think Kerry would appoint more African Americans to cabinet
positions than Bush - despite Bush's very visible appointments of
African Americans to his Cabinet.
WHO WOULD APPOINT MORE AFRICAN AMERICAN CABINET MEMBERS?
(Registered voters)
John Kerry 66%
George W. Bush 16
Both equally 2
Neither
3
Black voters may simply have an easier time relating to John Kerry than
to George W. Bush. When asked to choose between the two
candidates, by a large margin black voters even think John Kerry has
more soul than George W. Bush.
WHO HAS MORE SOUL?
(Registered voters)
John Kerry 64%
George W. Bush 11
Both equally 2
Neither
12
African Americans want to hear both Bush and Kerry talk about the
economy, jobs and healthcare this year. 29% volunteer the economy or
jobs as the top issue they want the candidates to discuss, and another
11% name health care. 21% cite the war in Iraq. And although many
African Americans live in urban areas that may be more vulnerable to
terror attacks, only 2% name terrorism as the main issue.
However, many black voters do not feel either candidate is addressing
these issues. 46% of those who named an issue think neither Kerry nor
Bush is talking about it.
ARE THE CANDIDATES DISCUSSING YOUR TOP ISSUE?
(Registered voters)
Yes, Kerry is 26%
Yes, Bush
is 9
Yes, both are 14
No, neither is 46
BUSH'S WEAKNESSES
From a low job approval rating to expressions of frustration and even
anger with the Administration, President George W. Bush receives very
little support from African American voters in this poll.
His job approval rating from this group is extremely low; just 11% approve, and 85% disapprove.
BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL RATING
(Registered voters)
Approve
11%
Disapprove 85
Nearly half of black voters are dissatisfied with the administration, and over a third say they are angry.
FEEL ABOUT BUSH'S ADMINISTRATION:
(Registered voters)
Enthusiastic 3%
Satisfied 11
Dissatisfied 46
Angry
37
George W. Bush has never been popular with black voters. Few
approved of the job he was doing in the months immediately after he
took office. His job approval rating rose among blacks just after
the September 11th terrorist attacks, as it did among all Americans,
but since then it has steadily declined.
George W. Bush is not the only Republican president to be so disliked
by African American voters. In the summer of 1992, only one in
five black voters approved of the job President George H. W. Bush was
doing. In 1988 and 1984, President Ronald Reagan's job approval
ratings were similarly low. Still, the current president's job
approval ratings are even lower than either his father's or Reagan's.
Most black voters think Bush does not share their priorities for the
country, and is not likely to tell them the truth. They say he is
of average, not high, intelligence.
VIEWS OF GEORGE W. BUSH
(Registered voters)
Yes No
Shares your
priorities
9% 84
Likely to tell you the truth
12% 79
GEORGE W. BUSH IS ...
(Registered voters)
Highly
intelligent
21%
Of average intelligence 67
THE POLITICAL PARTIES
The vast majority of African Americans consider themselves Democrats.
Most say the Democratic party generally tries to reach out to them,
although about one third - 35% - of African American voters feel that
the Democratic party takes them for granted. Most African American
voters who consider themselves Independents believe that the black vote
is taken for granted by the Democrats, suggesting why they might not
declare allegiance to that party.
DOES THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY ... ?
(Registered voters)
All Independents
Reach out to black
voters
60%
42%
Take black voters for
granted
35
49
Only a handful of African Americans identify themselves as Republicans,
and most black voters believe that the GOP generally does not try very
much to change that. 64% say the Republican party ignores the
black vote instead of reaching out to try to gain some of it; one-third
says the GOP does make efforts.
DOES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ... ?
(Registered voters)
Ignore black
voters
64%
Reach out to black voters 32
There is little expectation that either party will place an African
American atop its Presidential ticket any time soon. Most - 53% - do
not believe that a black candidate will win the Democratic party's
Presidential nomination within the next ten years. This is a very
different outlook from twenty years ago: in the summer of 1984, as the
Reverend Jesse Jackson made his first run at the Democratic Party's
Presidential nod, 72% of black voters -- and 77% of all voters --
believed that an African American would secure a Democratic party
nomination within thirty years (in essence, by the 2012 election.)
WILL AN AFRICAN AMERICAN WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
WITHIN TEN YEARS?
(Registered voters)
1984: Win nomination
Now
within 30 years?
Yes
40%
72%
No
53
15
Despite the fact that the GOP boasts nationally prominent figures such
as Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice within its ranks, few African American voters foresee
any African American candidate winning the Republican nomination within
ten years; just 18% think that will happen.
WILL AN AFRICAN AMERICAN WIN THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
WITHIN TEN YEARS?
(Registered voters)
Yes
18%
No
78
LEADERSHIP AND THE NATION'S DIRECTION
Twenty years after his first bid for the presidency, the Reverend Jesse
Jackson remains atop the list of important national leaders of the
African American community. Jackson's name was volunteered by 21% of
black voters asked to name the most important national African American
leader, ahead of Secretary of State Colin Powell at 13%. Jackson was
first among both older and younger respondents. The Reverend Al
Sharpton, who recently ran for the Democratic nomination, was far
behind at 4%. Condoleezza Rice was the only woman mentioned by more
than 1%. But almost half of all voters could not name anyone.
MOST IMPORTANT NATIONAL AFRICAN AMERICAN LEADER?
(Registered voters)
Jesse
Jackson
21%
Colin
Powell
13
Al
Sharpton
4
Kweisi
Mfume
3
Louis
Farrakhan 2
Condoleezza Rice 2
Don't know/No one 46
A majority of registered voters nationwide think things in this country
are off on the wrong track, and African American voters are even more
pessimistic. Nearly all -- 92% -- of African American voters say things
in this country have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track;
just 6% say things are headed in the right direction.
DIRECTION OF COUNTRY
(Registered voters)
African Americans All (7/2004)
Right
direction
6%
38%
Wrong
track
92
55
THE IMPORTANT ISSUES: THE ECONOMY AND IRAQ
African American voters, like many Americans, are concerned about the
economy and jobs in this election campaign. They also do not think the
war in Iraq was worth the costs.
The Economy
The economy and jobs appear to be the critical issue for many African
American voters. 46% say this issue will be the most important in
getting them to vote in November. Jobs and the economy are followed by
education with 19%, the war in Iraq with 14%, and health care with 14%.
WHICH ISSUE WOULD BE MOST IMPORTANT IN GETTING YOU TO
VOTE IN NOVEMBER?
(Registered voters)
Jobs and the economy 46%
Education
19
War in
Iraq
14
Health
care
14
Drugs
2
Crime
1
Job security -- or at least the perception of it -- is lower among
African American voters than among voters as a whole. 50% of
African-American voters are very concerned that they or someone in
their household may be out of work in the next 12 months, compared to
31% of all voters. An additional 23% are somewhat concerned about
losing their job.
CONCERNED YOU OR SOMEONE IN HOUSEHOLD MAY BE
OUT OF WORK IN THE NEXT YEAR
(Registered voters)
African Americans All
(5/2004)
Very
concerned
50%
31%
Somewhat
concerned
23
29
Not at all
concerned
27
40
As for which would be a better remedy for providing more jobs to
African Americans, 57% of black voters choose more government programs
that provide job training and employment, while 36% choose giving tax
incentives or tax breaks to encourage businesses to hire workers.
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AFRICAN AMERICANS WITH MORE JOBS?
(Registered voters)
More
government
programs
57%
Tax
breaks/incentives for businesses 36
The War in Iraq
African American voters clearly do not think the war in Iraq was worth
the loss of life and other costs. Nine in 10 do not think the war in
Iraq was worth it; just 8% say it was.
While a majority of voters overall think that the Iraq war was not
worth the costs, that feeling is less pervasive than it is among
African Americans. 59% of voters overall in a July CBS News/New York
Times Poll said the war was not worth the costs.
WAS IRAQ WAR WORTH COSTS?
(Registered voters)
African Americans All (7/2004)
Yes
8%
36%
No
90
59
African American voters who have family members in the military are no
more supportive of the Iraq war. 86% of black voters in military
households say the war was not worth it.
African Americans have strong ties to the military. In this poll,
36% of African American voters are military family members - that is,
either they themselves or an immediate family member is currently
serving in the U.S. military. This number is higher among African
Americans than it is among voters overall. In a CBS News/New York Times
Poll conducted in July, 21% of voters nationwide said they were a
military family member.
African American voters, like voters nationwide, are overwhelmingly
opposed to reinstating the military draft to provide soldiers for the
Iraq conflict. 82% oppose the draft. Among Americans overall, 70% are
opposed to it.
While African American voters may not necessarily support America's
involvement in Iraq, a large majority say the U.S. should intervene
when crises occur in Africa. 67% say the U.S. should intervene, 20% say
it should not, and 7% say it depends on the situation.
SHOULD U.S. INTERVENE WHEN CRISES OCCUR IN AFRICA?
(Registered voters)
Yes
67%
No
20
It depends
(vol.)
7
SOCIAL ISSUES: SAME-SEX MARRIAGE, EDUCATION AND CRIME
African American voters are both more conservative and more liberal
than voters overall on domestic and social issues. When it
comes to education, jobs and illegal drugs, African American voters
largely support government programs to help with these concerns.
Traditionally, African Americans have been strong supporters of a
government that provides many services. In November 2003, 69% of
African American voters said they preferred a bigger government
providing more services, while just 40% of voters nationwide agreed.
On one issue, black voters take a more conservative position than the public overall -- same sex marriage.
Same-Sex Marriage
More than half (53%) of African American voters think there should be
no legal recognition of same-sex relationships. Among voters
overall, 39% share this view.
43% of black voters support some type of legal recognition for same-sex couples; among all voters, 59% do.
SAME-SEX COUPLES SHOULD BE ALLOWED:
(Registered voters)
African-Americans All (7/2004)
To legally
marry
21%
26%
To form civil
unions
22
33
No legal
recognition
53
39
Much of the objections are religious ones: among the most devoutly
religious African Americans (those who attend church weekly), over
seven in 10 think there should be no legal recognition of same-sex
relationships.
Religion is extremely important to many black voters - more important
than it is to voters overall. 41% of African American voters say
they attend religious services every week, and an additional 12% say
they attend almost every week.
In a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in June, 26% of voters nationwide said they attended religious services every week.
There are some differences according to age and gender. Among African
American voters, women are more likely than men to attend religious
services each week; 45% of black women voters attend services each
week, compared to 35% of black voters who are men. Older voters
attend more frequently than younger ones.
ATTEND RELIGIOUS SERVICES ...
(Registered voters)
African Americans All (6/2004)
All Men Women
Every
week
41% 35%
45% 26%
Almost every
week
12 12
12 12
Once or twice a
month 19
18
20 12
A few times a
year
22 29
16 31
Never
6 6
6 18
Education
African American voters are somewhat divided as to what would do the
most to make sure African American children receive a good education.
44% think changing school district boundaries so that wealthy and
poorer schools are combined would do the most good, but almost as many
- 40% - say more government aid sent directly to public schools would
do the most.
One proposal that most African American voters don't see as the best
solution is school vouchers. Just one in ten cite this as the
best option.
WHICH WOULD MAKE SURE AFRICAN AMERICAN CHILDREN RECEIVE
A GOOD EDUCATION?
(Registered voters)
Changing
district
boundaries
44%
More
government
money
40
Vouchers
10
Given a set of choices, blacks say some things would work better than
quotas to get more African-Americans to attend college. 65% of
African- American voters say better college preparation in elementary
and high school would be the best way to help more African Americans
attend college. 25% think more financial assistance from the federal
government would be the best way. Only 4% cite more spaces in college
set aside specifically for black students as the best way to help more
African Americans go to college.
WHICH WOULD BE BEST TO HELP MORE AFRICAN AMERICANS
GO TO COLLEGE?
(Registered voters)
Better
college
preparation
65%
More
financial
assistance
25
More
spaces for black
students 4
Crime and Drugs
By a wide margin, African American voters see more community programs
and activities for young people as something that would most help to
solve the problems of crime and violence among youths in the black
community. Less than one in five say holding parents legally
responsible for the actions of their children would help, while just 6%
say longer and harsher jail sentences would do the most.
WHICH WOULD DO MOST TO SOLVE CRIME AMONG
YOUTHS IN THE BLACK COMMUNITY?
(Registered voters)
More community
programs
70%
Holding parents
responsible 18
Longer jail
sentences
6
While majorities of black voters across the board think more community
programs for youth would help remedy crime and violence, older voters
are more likely than younger ones to say parents need to be held more
responsible for their children's actions.
African American voters are tougher on the issue of illegal
drugs. More than a third thinks that more law enforcement
crackdowns on drug dealers would do the most to help solve this
problem. But again, these voters place a great deal of faith in
government programs; 28% think drug treatment programs and 25% think
drug education programs are the best bet.
WHICH WOULD DO MOST TO HELP GET ILLEGAL DRUGS
OUT OF THE BLACK COMMUNITY?
(Registered voters)
Law
enforcement
crackdowns
35%
More
anti-drug
programs
25
More drug
treatment
programs 28
Blacks differ from voters overall when it comes to support for the
death penalty. Most black voters in this poll oppose it. 44% of
African American voters think a life sentence without parole should be
the appropriate punishment for persons convicted of murder, while 25%
prefer a long prison sentence with a chance of parole. Just 18%
support the death penalty for a convicted murderer. These views are in
stark contrast to those of voters nationwide; in an August 2001 CBS
News Poll, 44% of voters supported the death penalty for those
convicted of murder.
WHAT SHOULD BE THE PENALTY FOR MURDER?
(Registered voters)
African Americans All (8/2001)
Death
penalty
18%
44%
Life sentence with no
parole
44%
29
Long sentence with
parole
25
8
Affirmative Action
Even though they say there are better means than quotas to ensure that
more African-Americans attend college, African American voters strongly
support affirmative action programs. 76% say such programs
should be continued for the foreseeable future. 15% think affirmative
actions programs should be phased out over the next few years, while
only 3% think affirmative action should end now.
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION PROGRAMS SHOULD BE ...
(Registered voters)
Ended
now
3%
Phased over next
few
years
15
Continued for
foreseeable
future
76
While African Americans support affirmative action programs across all
demographic groups, black voters who describe themselves as
conservative are more likely to say that affirmative action programs
should be ended now or phased out. 27% of these conservatives express
this view, compared to 18% of African American voters overall.
METHODOLOGY
Interviews were conducted among 986 African American adults by
telephone. Interviews were conducted from July 6-15, 2004, by CBS News
on behalf of BET. These respondents were part of nationwide
representative samples identified in households previously interviewed
by CBS News Polls.
Weighting
The sample is weighted to ensure that the distribution of interviews
mirrors the distribution of the entire population of African-Americans
across a variety of variables.
The weighting procedures are as follows:
1. Each respondent receives a weight inversely proportional to his or her
probability of selection. This weight is calculated by taking the
HOUSEHOLD weight from the original source survey times the number of
members in the household. (For the original adult surveys, weighting
factors included the number of telephone voice lines in a household
and respondent demographic characteristics matched to Census data on
region, age, education, gender and race.)
2. The weights were then adjusted to match Census Bureau estimates of
African Americans by sex, age, region of the country and education.
Margin of Error
The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus three percentage
points for results based on the entire sample. That means that 95
times out of a hundred, the results are within three percentage points
of what they would be if the entire universe of African Americans were
interviewed. The error for subgroups is larger.
National Trend
Included throughout this analysis are data from CBS News and CBS News/New York Times national polls of adults.
Note
Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
q17 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2004
Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
A
lot
37 44 31
Some
40 40 40
Not
much
19 13 23
No attention so
far
5 3 7
DK/NA
0 0 0
q18 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2004 election for
President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote,
probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the
election for President?
Definitely
vote
83 85 82
Probably
vote
12 10 13
Probably not
vote
4 4 3
Definitely not
vote
1 1 2
DK/NA
0 0 0
q19 If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the
candidates were John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the
Republican, would you vote for John Kerry or George W. Bush?
[CANDIDATES NAMES AND ANSWER CODES WILL ROTATE]
John
Kerry
79 82 77
George
W.Bush
10 9 10
Other
(Vol.)
1 2 0
Won't vote
(Vol.)
1 0 1
Depends
(Vol.)
2 1 3
DK/NA
7 6 8
q20 Which of these comes closest to your feelings about John Kerry as
the Democratic Party's nominee for President? -- 1. Angry, 2.
Dissatisfied, but not angry, 3. Satisfied, but not enthusiastic, or 4.
Enthusiastic.
Angry
1 1 1
Dissatisfied, but not angry 10 12 7
Satisfied, not enthusiastic 58 54 61
Enthusiastic
27 30 24
DK/NA
5 3 7
q21 Which of these comes closest to your feelings about George W.
Bush's administration? -- 1. Angry, 2. Dissatisfied, but not angry, 3.
Satisfied, but not enthusiastic, or 4. Enthusiastic.
Angry
37 38 36
Dissatisfied, but not angry 46 49 44
Satisfied, not enthusiastic 11 7 14
Enthusiastic
3 4 2
DK/NA
2 1 3
q22 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
Approve
11 10 12
Disapprove
85 87 83
DK/NA
4 3 5
q23 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right
direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the
wrong track?
Right
direction
6 5 6
Wrong
track
92 92 92
DK/NA
2 3 2
q24 Which ONE issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2004 presidential campaign?
Economy and
Jobs
29 34 26
War in
Iraq
21 21 21
Health
Care
11 8 14
Education
6 3 8
Medicare,
Medicaid
3 2 3
Defense /
Military
2 2 1
Terrorism
(general)
2 3 0
Poverty /
Homelessness
2 2 2
Social
Security
1 2 1
Drug coverage/Prescription
1 1 1
Foreign
Policy
1 2 1
Attention to Domestic affairs 1 1 1
Religious
Values
1 0 1
Taxes/IRS
1 2 1
Gas/Heating Oil
Crisis
1 1 1
Gay/Same-Sex
Marriage
1 1 1
Security/Safety
1 2 1
Other
5 5 4
DK/NA
10 8 12
q25 From what you have seen or heard, do you think either candidate is talking about that issue? IF YES: Which candidate?
Yes, Kerry
is
26 23 28
Yes, Bush
is
9 9 10
Yes, both
are
14 18 11
No
46 47 45
DK/NA
5 3 6
q26 Do you think John Kerry has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not?
Has
64 70 59
Does not
have
19 20 19
DK/NA
17 10 22
q27 Do you think John Kerry is likely or not likely to tell you the truth?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
Yes
63 73 55
No
21 18 24
DK/NA
16 9 21
q28 Would you be more likely to describe John Kerry as highly intelligent, or of only average intelligence?
Highly
intelligent
56 58 54
Average
intelligence
37 38 35
Below average
(vol.)
0 1 0
DK/NA
7 3 11
q29 If John Kerry is elected President in November, do you think
opportunities for black people in the U.S. will get better, get worse,
or stay about the same?
Get
better
47 52 43
Get
worse
3 4 2
Stay
same
45 40 49
DK/NA
5 4 6
q30 Do you think George W. Bush has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not?
Has
9 11 8
Does not
have
84 84 84
DK/NA
7 5 8
q31 Do you think George W. Bush is likely or not likely to tell you the truth?
Yes
12 13 11
No
79 81 78
DK/NA
9 6 11
q32 Would you be more likely to describe George W. Bush as highly intelligent, or of only average intelligence?
Highly
intelligent
21 20 22
Average
intelligence
67 71 63
Below average
(vol.)
6 5 7
DK/NA
6 4 8
q33 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think
would appoint more African-Americans to his Cabinet or other high-level
positions, John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Kerry
66 67 65
Bush
16 18 14
Neither
(vol.)
3 1 4
Both equally
(vol.)
2 3 2
DK/NA
13 11 15
q34 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think has more soul -- John Kerry or George W. Bush?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
John
Kerry
64 68 61
George W.
Bush
11 9 12
Both equally
(vol.)
2 3 1
Neither
(vol.)
12 12 11
DK/NA
11 8 15
q35 In election years, do you think the Democratic Party generally
takes black voters for granted, or does the Democratic party generally
try to reach out to black voters?
Takes for
granted
35 38 32
Reaches
out
60 58 62
DK/NA
5 4 6
q36 In election years, do you think the Republican Party generally
ignores black voters, or does the Republican Party generally try to
reach out to black voters?
Ignores
64 65 63
Reaches
out
32 33 31
DK/NA
4 2 6
q37 Do you think that a black candidate will receive the Democratic party's nomination for President within the next ten years?
Yes
40 37 42
No
53 57 50
DK/NA
7 6 8
q38 Do you think that a black candidate will receive the Republican party's nomination for President within the next ten years?
Yes
18 14 20
No
78 83 74
DK/NA
4 3 6
q39 Who do you feel is the most important national leader in the black community today?
Jesse
Jackson
21 25 18
Colin
Powell
13 15 11
Al
Sharpton
4 5 3
Kweisi
Mfume
3 3 2
Louis
Farrakhan
2 3 1
Condoleezza
Rice
2 1 2
Oprah
Winfrey
1 0 1
Bill
Cosby
1 1 1
T.D.
Jakes
1 1 1
Any other
politician
2 4 1
No
one
3 3 2
Other
4 4 6
DK/NA
43 33 51
q40 Which of these issues would be the most important in getting you to
vote in November? 1. Education; 2. Jobs and the economy; 3.
Crime; 4. Illegal drugs; 5. The war in Iraq, 6. Health care, or
something else? IF SOMETHING ELSE, ASK: What issue will be
most important?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
Education
19 20 18
Jobs and the
economy
46 52 41
Crime
1 1 2
Drugs
2 1 2
War in
Iraq
14 14 13
Health
care
14 10 17
Something else
(SPECIFY)
3 2 3
None of the above
(vol.)
1 0 1
DK/NA
0 0 3
q41 Now I would like to ask you some questions about various issues
facing the country today. Which one of the following do you think
would do the most to provide African Americans with more jobs? 1.
More government programs, such as job training and employment programs,
to prepare people for work, or 2. Using tax breaks or tax penalties to
encourage businesses to hire more workers?
More government programs 57 54 58
Tax breaks for businesses
36 36 35
Both
(vol.)
3 3 2
Neither
(vol.)
3 5 2
Something else
(vol.)
1 1 1
DK/NA
0 1 2
q42 Which ONE of the following would do the most to make sure African
American children receive a good education? 1. Vouchers for
children to attend private or religious schools; or 2. More government
money going directly to public schools; or 3. Changing the school
district boundaries so that wealthy and poorer schools are combined?
Vouchers
10 8 12
More government
money
40 36 44
Changing district boundaries 44 50 40
All
(vol.)
2 3 1
None
(vol.)
1 1 1
Something else
(vol.)
0 1 0
DK/NA
3 1 2
q43 Which ONE of the following do you think would be the best way to
help more African Americans go to college? 1. More financial
assistance from the federal government to help pay for college, or 2.
More spaces in college set aside specifically for African American
students, or 3. Better college preparation in elementary and high
school?
More financial assistance 25 24 27
More spaces for
students
4 3 4
Better college preparation 65 68 63
All
(vol.)
4 4 4
None
(vol.)
0 1 0
Something else
(vol.)
0 0 1
DK/NA
2 0 1
q44 Which ONE of the following would do the most to solve the problem
of crime and violence among youths in the black community? 1.
Longer jail sentences for youths who break the law, or 2. Holding
parents legally responsible for their children's actions, or 3. More
community programs and activities for youths?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
Longer/harsher jail sentences 6 4 8
Holding parents responsible 18 20 17
More community
programs
70 70 70
All
(vol.)
3 3 3
None
(vol.)
1 0 1
Something else
(vol.)
1 1 1
DK/NA
1 2 0
q45 Which ONE do you think would do the most to help get illegal drugs
out of the black community? 1. More law enforcement crackdowns on
drug dealers, or 2. More anti-drug education programs, or 3. More drug
treatment programs to get users off drugs?
Legal
crackdowns
35 31 38
More anti-drug
programs
25 26 24
More drug treatment programs 28 33 25
All
(vol.)
4 3 5
None
(col.)
3 2 4
Something else
(vol.)
3 3 3
DK/NA
2 2 1
q46 What do you think should be the penalty for persons convicted of
murder -- 1. the death penalty, 2. or life in prison with no chance of
parole, or 3. a long prison sentence with a chance of parole?
Death
penalty
18 19 17
Life with no
parole
44 39 49
Long sentence with parole
25 32 19
Depends
(vol.)
9 7 11
DK/NA
4 3 4
q47 What do you think should happen to affirmative action
programs -- 1. Should they be ended now, or 2. Should they be
phased out over the next few years, or 3. Should affirmative action
programs be continued for the foreseeable future?
Ended
now
3 4 3
Phased
out
15 14 15
Cont'd for forseeable future 76 82 72
DK/NA
6 0 10
q48 Which comes closest to your view -- 1.Gay couples should be allowed
to legally marry, or 2. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not legally marry, or 3. There should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship.
Should be allowed marry 21 24 20
Allowed to form civil unions 22 20 22
No legal
recognition
53 53 54
DK/NA
4 3 4
q49 Do you think the U.S. should or should not intervene when crises occur in Africa?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
Should
67 68 66
Should
not
20 20 20
It depends
(vol.)
7 9 6
DK/BA
6 3 8
q50 How much confidence do you have that your vote in November will be
counted accurately -- a lot, some, not much, or no confidence your vote
will be counted accurately?
A
lot
41 46 37
Some
39 37 41
Not
much
11 10 11
No
confidence
6 4 8
Won't vote
(Vol.)
0 0 0
DK/NA
3 3 3
q51 Will the voting problems reported in Florida in the 2000
presidential election make you more likely to vote in this year's
presidential election, less likely to vote, or won't they make much
difference in whether or not you vote?
More
likely
51 50 52
Less
likely
3 4 3
No
difference
45 46 44
DK/NA
1 0 1
q52 Do you think black voters will be less likely than whites to have
their 2004 presidential election votes counted fairly, or not?
Will be less
likely
41 46 37
Will not be less
likely
47 45 49
Depends on state
(Vol.)
4 3 5
DK/NA
8 6 9
q53 Do you think there probably is or probably is not a deliberate
attempt by some people to prevent African Americans from voting or
having their votes counted properly?
Probably
is
68 69 66
Probably is
not
27 27 26
DK/NA
5 4 8
q54 Do you favor or oppose reinstating the military draft to provide soldiers for the Iraq conflict?
Favor
15 17 14
Oppose
82 80 83
DK/NA
3 3 3
q55 Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was worth the loss of
American life and other costs of attacking Iraq, or not worth it?
Worth
it
8 7 8
Not worth
it
90 91 89
DK/NA
2 2 3
q56 Do you or does any member of your immediate family now serve in the U.S. armed forces or in the U.S. reserves?
** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Men Women
% % %
No
64 63 65
Yes,
self
3 4 3
Yes,
other
32 32 31
Yes, self and
other
1 0 1
DK/NA
0 1 0
q57 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone
else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job --
very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
Very
concerned
50 51 49
Somewhat
concerned
23 21 24
Not at all
concerned
27 27 26
DK/NA
0 1 1
q58 Would you say you attend religious services every week,
almost every week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, or never?
Every
week
41 35 45
Almost every
week
12 12 12
Once or twice a
month
19 18 20
A few times a
year
22 29 16
Never
6 6 6
DK/NA
0 0 1
q59 Regardless of what you think about George W. Bush now, looking back
to 2000, would you say George W. Bush legitimately won the 2000
presidential election, or not?
Legitimately
won
11 11 11
Did not win
legitimately
85 87 83
DK/NA
4 2 6
q60 How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?
Always
63 63 63
Nearly
always
20 20 21
Part of the
time
9 9 9
Seldom
6 7 6
Never
(vol.)
2 1 1
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Total Respondents 986
Registered
Voters
868 834
Men Registered
Voters
304 370
Women Registered Voters 564 464
Source: BET (Black Entertainment Television); CBS News
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