Analysis Suggests the English Government May be Manipulating Mortality Data to Fabricate the Effectiveness of Deadly COVID Injections

Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination

By Martin Neil, Norman Fenton Joel Smalley, Clare Craig, Joshua Guetzkow, Scott McLachlan, Jonathan Engler and Jessica Rose

3 December 2021

From [HERE] and [HERE] The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is arguably most accurately measured by an all-cause mortality rate comparison of vaccinated against unvaccinated, since it not only avoids most confounders relating to case definition but also fulfils the WHO/CDC definition of "vaccine effectiveness" for mortality. We examine the latest UK ONS vaccine mortality surveillance report which provides the necessary information to monitor this crucial comparison over time. At first glance the ONS data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. Despite this apparent evidence to support vaccine effectiveness-at least for the older age groups-on closer inspection of this data, this conclusion is cast into doubt because of a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in the data. Whatever the explanations for the observed data, it is clear that it is both unreliable and misleading. While socio-demographical and behavioural differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated have been proposed as possible explanations, there is no evidence to support any of these. By Occam's razor we believe the most likely explanations are systemic miscategorisation of deaths between the different categories of unvaccinated and vaccinated; delayed or non-reporting of vaccinations; systemic underestimation of the proportion of unvaccinated; and/or incorrect population selection for Covid deaths.

Our recent articles [1, 2] have argued that the simplest and most objective way to assess the overall risk/benefit of Covid-19 vaccines is to compare all-cause mortality rates of the unvaccinated against the vaccinated in each separate age-group. For such an assessment we need accurate periodic data on both age-categorized deaths and the number of vaccinated/unvaccinated people in each age group for that period.

Any systemic errors or biases can lead to conclusions that are inversions of the real situation. For example, simply reporting deaths one week late when a vaccine programme is rolled out will (with statistical certainty) lead to any vaccine, even a placebo, seemingly reducing mortality. The same statistical illusion will happen if any death of a person occurring in the same week as the person is vaccinated is treated as an unvaccinated, rather than vaccinated, death [16].

The UK Government (through its various relevant agencies) has been better than most countries in providing detailed data on Covid cases and deaths indexed by vaccine status. However, in [1] we highlighted the absence of relevant age-categorized mortality data for England, and major inconsistencies in the data provided by different agencies. Of most concern are the very different estimates provided by UKHSA (United Kingdom Health Security Agency) and the ONS (Office for National Statistics) of the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated people. The reports from UKHSA use estimates from the NIMS (National Immunisation Management Service) database [10], while the estimates from the ONS are based on 2011 census respondents and patients registered with a GP in 2019. Hence the ONS England ‘population’ (which therefore includes only people aged at least 10) is only approximately 39 million, compared to the approximately 49 million listed in NIMS. While our focus is on mortality by vaccination status, accurate periodic estimates for the proportion of people vaccinated are also crucial for determining vaccine effectiveness, since this is simply a comparison between the ‘cases’, hospitalisations and deaths per 100K vaccinated and unvaccinated.

An indication of just how critical this is illustrated by the latest UKHSA report [3] which showed that, in each age group above 29, the Covid case rate was higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.