Running Hard in the Back of the Pack - Alan Keyes, Gun Lover

• Originally published in The New York Times, December 17, 1999

Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company 

The gun guys did not go in for fancy decorations when they held their chat-and-chew for presidential hopefuls here.

Aside from a couple of Christmas wreaths, there were just small signs, hung near the ceiling of the Holiday Inn ballroom, advertising some sponsors (Gun Owners of New Hampshire, the Kittery Trading Post and the gun maker Sturm, Ruger & Company) and some candidates (Gary L. Bauer, Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah and Alan Keyes).

All, though, were overshadowed by the huge blue banner behind the moderator's lectern. It proclaimed "Forbes 2000."

The scene early this month pretty much sums up life on the campaign trail for Mr. Bauer, Mr. Hatch and Mr. Keyes, the three candidates at the back of the pack in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Even when the leading candidates do not show up, as they did not at the Gun Owners of New Hampshire's presidential forum, these three just cannot grab the limelight.

"Sometimes I feel like I am shouting into a void, and I wonder if anybody's listening," said Mr. Keyes, a radio talk show host and former state department official.

Mr. Keyes and the others find themselves shoved into the shadows not only by Gov. George W. Bush of Texas and Senator John McCain of Arizona but also by Steve Forbes, the wealthy magazine publisher. Mr. Forbes may be running a distant third in the state, but he draws double-digit support in polls. The three trailers, lucky to draw more than 1 percent apiece, are outspent, outmanned, outgunned, everything but out-talked.

In fact as the candidates have participated in several debates in New Hampshire and elsewhere, Mr. Hatch, Mr. Bauer and Mr. Keyes have more than held their own. Mr. Hatch has jabbed at Mr. Bush over the governor's experience and cracked jokes at the expense of the governor and others.

And pundits and politicians of all stripes, from George Stephanopoulos to Senator Mitch McConnell, the head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, have praised the public speaking skills of Mr. Bauer and Mr. Keyes.

Nevertheless, a growing chorus of political professionals keeps suggesting that the three of them, and possibly Mr. Forbes, get off the stage and leave the campaign to the serious contenders.

"The truth is," wrote Richard N. Bond, the former national Republican chairman, in an Op-Ed article in The New York Times, "that Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer have had ample time to establish themselves as viable candidates, and they have failed."

A recent poll found that, nationally, more than half the registered voters surveyed had no idea who Mr. Keyes or Mr. Bauer were. A third did not recognize Mr. Hatch's name -- even though he has been a senator since 1977 and even though, as head of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he played an active role in the impeachment of President Clinton.

Still, New Hampshire, where even the most obscure candidate is treated like a star, and where television advertisements have traditionally been less important than pressing the flesh at pancake breakfasts, presents an opportunity for the rear-runners to put up a fight.

Mr. Bauer has hired a former editorial writer for The Union Leader, the state's biggest newspaper, as an adviser and gamely visits Rotary clubs and junior high schools out where the highway signs warn of meandering moose. Mr. Keyes, whose staff is less seasoned but even more impassioned (he has acolytes rather than aides), is out there, too. Even Mr. Hatch is traveling around New Hampshire more than his staff had intended.

Mr. Hatch and Mr. Keyes contend that prejudice may keep them from being taken seriously. Mr. Keyes has complained bitterly that he is being ignored by the news media because he is black and conservative. In New Hampshire, he is almost always the only African-American in the room. His staff is mostly white, said Connie Hair, his press secretary.

Mr. Hatch suggests that he has been the victim of religious bias among voters and in the news media. "There's real anti-Mormon prejudice out there," he said.

Mr. Bauer jokes about his small stature (he is 5-foot-6) as a possible source of discrimination. But his advisers take his appearance seriously enough to have run focus groups about it. Women "react to the fact that he doesn't look like a matinee idol for three or four minutes and then forget about it," said Jeffrey Bell, one of Mr. Bauer's aides.

But the biggest problem for all three is money. As of Sept. 30, Mr. Bauer had raised $6.3 million; Mr. Keyes, $2.5 million; and Mr. Hatch, just $1.3 million. By contrast, Mr. Bush has raised $57.7 million; Mr. Forbes, $20.6 million; and Mr. McCain, $9.4 million.

All that money buys big campaign buses, huge headquarters and omnipresent television advertisements. Mr. Bush's staff wears snappy fleece pullovers with his logo embroidered on the chest; Mr. Forbes has a digital camera that produces instant mementos for anyone who shakes his hand.

Mr. Bauer, Mr. Hatch and Mr. Keyes have signs on sticks.

No wonder that Mr. Hatch, contemplating the millions that Mr. Bush has already spent, keeps saying, "It's obscene!" But his personal bete noire seems to be Mr. McCain. Though Mr. Hatch often says how much "I care for John" (and, all of his rivals), he cannot stop taking jabs at Mr. McCain for his temper, his missed votes and his support for background checks for people who buy guns at gun shows.

What may also rankle is Mr. McCain's popularity with the news media. Mr. Hatch, by contrast, has a hard time attracting media attention, even in New Hampshire.

After a debate here in early December, for example, Mr. Hatch could scarcely make himself heard over the roar of hundreds of reporters who joked, gossiped, chatted and typed while he tried to answer questions. There were not many.

But 90 minutes after the debate, Mr. Hatch was still in the press room, talking away.

Emphasizing what he calls his rivals' lack of experience, Mr. Hatch talks over and over about the bills he has passed, about "the biggest change in patent law in 50 years," about Internet regulations, about health care programs for children.

"I'm very conservative," he said, "but I'm the only one with a proven record of working with Democrats."

But that very experience may be turning off the conservative voters Mr. Hatch hopes to woo.

"Orrin Hatch is somebody who talks conservative back home but votes with his friend Teddy Kennedy too often," said Craig Sanborn, a postal worker from Enfield Center, N.H., at the gun owners' dinner.

Elective experience, or the lack of it, does not weigh with Mr. Bauer. Asked why he did not run for a less prominent office, he said most other positions would be a step down, compared with his job as president of the Family Research Council, a conservative fund-raising and lobbying group in Washington. He is on leave from the group.

"I'm already more influential than the typical member of the House of Representatives, and arguably as influential as a senator," he said.

And influence appears to be his goal. While his staff insists Mr. Bauer is running because he believes he can win, staff members talk a lot about how his candidacy has solidified his position as the voice of American conservatives, and how, as his spokesman, Timothy S. Goeglein said, his campaign "can help shape the contours of the party."

At the gun owners' dinner, his speech seemed to rivet the crowd.

"Gary not only held his own but made ground," said R. Craig Peterson, president of the Gun Owners of New Hampshire. Mr. Bauer's success was especially surprising, Mr. Peterson added, because "it's tough coming after Alan Keyes -- he's a great orator."

Such compliments make Mr. Keyes's supporters bristle, because they think he is much more than a good speaker. "He's a brilliant man, a great leader," said Judy Stephens, a visiting nurse from Bedford.

But style is important in a race with so many candidates who seem to share many positions. The trailing candidates all speak about their belief in God and morality, and about their opposition to abortion, gun control and the federal tax system.

"At some point it will start to occur to people that they should put somebody out there that people want to hear and see." Mr. Keyes said. "That seems to be one of the big qualities involved in running for office."

He can clearly draw a crowd. Rebecca Grubbs of Brookline, N.H., who was eight months pregnant, left her 2-year-old son with a sitter for the first time so she could hear Mr. Keyes at the gun owners' dinner.

And Mr. Keyes did not disappoint. His speech was interrupted by applause more than any other candidate's, and his proposal that high school students be taught how to use guns went over well with the crowd of about 400, some of whom carried bumper stickers that read, "I love my country, I fear my government."

But Mr. Keyes suffers, like the other trailing candidates, from having a small staff and little money. After the dinner, Mr. Peterson, the group's president, was approached by a member who was carrying a huge plastic case. Mr. Keyes needed to have his banner put in the case and shipped to another campaign stop, she said. Find one of his people, Mr. Peterson replied.

But the banner -- and Mr. Keyes's staff -- had disappeared.