Chris Stevenson: Clinton vs. Rice in Campaign '08? Can Two Women shake up the Presidential Race?

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By Chris Stevenson

Until further notice, consider this a what-if column. That is if President Bush doesn't do something that precipatates a nuclear holocaust, we may just make it to 2008, just in time for a possible two major party endorsed cadidate run between two females, NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Secretary of State Dr. Condoleeza Rice. This is worth speculating on now because... well it's a good possibility, and the implications are deep. Here for the first time ever are two women surviving the challenges and primaries of their own respective parties, to stand alone and face off against each other in November of 2008. The result will garauntee a female Commander-in-Chief for the first time ever (though some may argue that in many ways we have one now in Rice), and spark a voter party-shift revolution the likes of which hasn't been seen since the days of Roosevelt. Back then African Americans left the Republican Party to join the Democratic Party becausei it was the party of Franklin D and Eleanor Roosevelt. There are currently republicans harboring hopes that Rice will play veep on a ticket fronting former New York City Mayor Rudolph Guiliani, but consider this a vehicle of wishful White thinking by conservatives who haven't completely swallowed the Rice pill. Guiliani simply has too many questions surrounding him, and he's too unpredictable.

One right wing site conducted a poll of 875 voters as to which republican would they like to see run in '08, Rice got the most votes at 384 (43%), Guiliani was a distant 2nd with 112 votes (12.8%), and W's brother Jeb was third garnering 71 votes (8.1%). Those republican voters still squeamish about Rice may be too much on the fringe to make a difference. If Rice performs her state duties to satisfaction it's concievable she'll have the backing of the Bush political machine to add even more weight to those ultra-conservative hands hesitant about pulling the lever for a Black candidate who may be holding down the fort until the next generation of Bushes prepare for a run in 4-8 years (Don't think this is too farfetched, brother Jeb may be waiting in the wings for 2012, but that may be the last gasp for the GOP until W's terrible twins enter the fray a decade or two from then).

The principle reason for this is because it puts African American voters in a very strange position, first off they have their first ever presidential candidate that is actually considered a threat to win. 36 years after Shirley Chisholm, 20 years after Jesse Jackson's last run, and 4 years after Al Sharpton's (not to mention a whole array of Black protest and plant presidential candidates), 2008 could be the year that Rice runs, and loses the majority of the Black vote to a White female Clinton because Condi is also a republican. In order for this Black woman to win the Black vote, she would have to reach out to the Black community as she has never done before. Mainly because she has never done before, appeal to African Americans that is. Though there are Blacks who are proud of her position, education, and work ethic, and authority, those same admirers attach most of their feelings regarding her as a hope for the future, a cold calculating Texas instrument in silk stockings that they pray is simply playing a role, acting out a strategy that will see her warm up to them when we need her the most.

Of course I'm jumping the gun, Rice has yet to prove she can handle her transition from wartime intelligence advisor, to the diplomatic post of Secretary of State. As it stands, it seems Senator Clinton is the one who has the advantage, already conservative pundits see her as being the driving force among other democrats in pushing for federal holiday status for election day, and legislation that would allow ex-felons to vote in time for the '06 mid-term House and Senate elections. This is a mid-Febuary idea by leading democrats in response to the alleged '04 voting irregularities. Many Blacks and White Democrates compared her and her husband former president Bill, to the Roosevelts in terms of their views on civil rights and other liberal agendas. But could an outright overture to African Americans by Rice force Hillary to lean her agenda more to the right? Or will Hillary simply fight fire with fire by adding Illinois Senator Barack Obama as her Vice Presidential candidate? An Obama factor could put quit a spin in favor of the dems, but then again, the groundbreaking Obama didn't vote affirmative at Condoleeza's Secretary of State confirmation hearing for nothing.