New Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

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Although the election is over, serious questions remain unanswered. On March 31st, the National Election Data Archive Project released a  new scientific paper and executive summary report on the discrepancy between exit polls and official vote tallies in the 2004 presidential election. 

More than 27,000 reports of irregularities in the 2004 election were submitted to the independent "Election Incident Reporting System"; thousands more were reported to other organizations.

Unprecedented discrepancies between exit poll results and final tallies in several key states occurred that still have never been explained.  It has only recently been officially confirmed (by the exit pollsters themselves) that on election night the final set of exit polls showed John Kerry defeating George Bush by 3% of the popular vote and a clear majority of 316 electoral votes.  Our statisticians analyzed Edison/Mitofsky's own explanation of their exit poll discrepancies, and found serious flaws in their argument.  Exit polls have been used for years to detect corruption of official vote tallies - most recently in Ukraine. 

A General Accounting Office (GAO) investigation is already underway into the security and accuracy of voting technologies, the distribution and allocation of voting machines, and counting of provisional ballots.  The FBI, the Department of Justice and the Congressional Research Service have also been officially asked to  investigate various aspects of the 2004 election. [more]

  • Pictured above: A Flier Sent to Republicans by the Florida Republican Party during the week of July 29, 2004. The Flier urges Republicans to vote absentee because Electronic voting cannot be trusted to be counted. The St. Petersburg Times noted that, "while Gov. Jeb Bush reassures Floridians that touch screen voting machines are reliable, the Republican Party is sending the opposite message to some voters." The flier says, "Republicans Order your Absentee Ballot Now. Every Vote Counts. The liberal Democrats have already begun their attacks and the new electronic voting machines do not have a paper ballot to verify your vote in case of a recount. Just sign the request form below and drop it in the mail. Don't be fooled by imitations. This is the official Republican Party Absentee Ballot Request Form ." Republican Party spokesman Joseph Agostini initially denied that the brochure was the work of the GOP. But after he was shown the flier, he backtracked and confirmed it was a GOP flier. [more]
  • On July 30, 2004 the Republicans Apologized for the flier "for sending mixed signals about touch-screen voting equipment." A Jeb Bush spokeswoman said "he does not agree with any message that is going to criticize the touch-screen system because it works," said Jill Bratina, Bush's communications director. "We had elections in 2002 on electronic machines. . . . They work, and voters should be comfortable using them." [more]
  • Republicans are Lying about the Security of Electronic Voting for a Reason [more]