U.S. Trade Deficit Rises to New High; More Risk to Dollar

The United States trade deficit soared to a monthly record of $60.3 billion in November, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. The figure confounded predictions that the deficit would diminish with the weakening of the dollar and an easing in the price of oil. Instead, the trade gap has created increased pressure for the dollar to drop even further. In New York trading on Wednesday, the dollar fell 1.1 percent against the euro and 0.9 percent against the Japanese yen. At $1.3271, the euro is not far from its record high of $1.3667, which it reached against the dollar on Dec. 30. The dollar fell to 102.35 yen, not far from a five-year low of 102.08 on Dec. 3. The jump in the trade deficit showed a surprising weakening in exports across the board, from farm products to capital goods like aircraft and semiconductors. Exports decreased to $95.55 billion in November from $97.79 billion in October; imports increased to $155.84 billion from $153.79 billion. The figures, released by the Commerce Department, showed that the deficit is on track to exceed $600 billion for 2004, up from $496.5 billion in 2003. With November's report, it has already reached $561 billion. Economists said that the trade deficit data was distressing and that several things would have to change if the trend were to be reversed. First, they said that Americans would have to save more and United States businesses must sell more goods and services overseas. In addition, they said that currency exchange rates needed to be adjusted, pointing in particular to China, whose currency, the yuan, is now linked to the dollar. But persuading trade partners to adjust their policies to ease the American imbalance will be difficult at best, as many of these same countries are underwriting American debt by purchasing Treasury obligations. The net debt position of the United States now stands at $2.4 trillion, costing Americans roughly $333 a person a year in interest. [more]